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Special Analysis the New Reality in the Mideast

November 23, 1977
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The greatest achievement of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s visit was making the Israelis believe in him. The common saying here, “You can never trust an Arab,” does not sound valid anymore. Israel’s traditional argument, “There is nobody to talk with in the Arab world,” sounds anachronistic. The Israelis took leave of Sadat believing that he sincerely wanted peace. The question now is: what kind of peace?

The second achievement of the visit is that the peace negotiations have actually begun. They began Sunday night at the King David Hotel where Sadat and Premier. Menachem Begin held a “working dinner,” or perhaps Saturday evening when the Egyptian national anthem was played at Ben Gurion Airport.

The subject now is no longer waiting for the Geneva conference, trying to overcome procedural obstacles. As far as the two countries are concerned, the Geneva conference can wait. It is time for preparatory negotiations between Israel and Egypt, which should eventually lead to the Geneva conference.

ISRAEL-EGYPT NEGOTIATIONS SEEN

Sadat’s declaration that he did not come to Israel to sign a separate agreement with Israel does not contradict holding such negotiations, analysts here note. The negotiations will take place, although the actual signing of treaties will have to be in Geneva, with all the parties concerned.

Israel’s past efforts to reach an early understanding with the United States before the convening of the Geneva conference may now be replaced with efforts to reach such an understanding with Egypt, according to analysts. Obviously, it is much more difficult to convince Sadat of Israel’s claims than to convince President Carter, but in the long run the effort should pay off. In this respect, the Americans may find out that their role as the irreplaceable mediators has diminished considerably, at least as long as the Egyptians and the Israelis continue the negotiations begun in Jerusalem.

Some optimists said today that the visit has brought the Mideast 30 years closer to peace. Time will tell if this prediction is right, but what is obvious already is that the visit speeded up the process of negotiations. The issues are no longer procedural. They are substantive.

Many Israelis said they missed at least a symbolic Israeli concession made so that “Sadat would have something to go home with.” To judge by the public appearances, this gesture was not made.

PRESSURE MOUNTING ON BEGIN

Few, if anybody, knew today what was really promised to Sadat in his private talks with Begin. Few knew whether Begin promised anything, or was going to initiate such a gesture. Begin will also face pressure for gestures from within his own government.

Defense Minister Ezer Weizman said today in a newspaper interview with Yediot Achronot that Israel should not miss this historic opportunity. There are other moderate–and influential–ministers in the Cabinet, which will probably push for an Israeli initiative. Among them, probably Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan, Deputy Premier Yigael Yadin, Justice Minister Shmuel Tamir and Transportation and Communications Minister Meir Amit.

The latter three are members of the Democratic Movement for Change (DMC). In fact, the discussion in the Cabinet of the Sadat visit may indeed be the first confrontation between the DMC and Begin on the subject of Israel’s overall policy. A Cabinet meeting is scheduled for Thursday to hear a briefing from Begin on the Sadat visit.

Begin apparently wants to do some “thinking” before taking the next step. He apparently did not want to make decisions under the pressure of time and public opinion–even at the price of losing some credit with world public opinion, according to analysts.

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