A straw poll conducted yesterday among Israelis who voted in the municipal elections has created a stir in Likud and Labor political circles. The voters were asked which party they would favor if a Knesset election were to be held now. The first results showed Labor and Likud running practically neck-and-neck and the results after adjustments for several factors put Labor ahead.
The poll was commissioned by Israel Television and conducted by statistician Hanoch Smith. The question now being asked by politicians of all parties is how reliable the results are. The initial count gave Labor 44 seats in the new Knesset, a gain of II and Likud 46, a gain of one. Critics contended that the poll was inaccurate because of the low turnout of voters in the municipal elections– only 50 percent of the eligible voters cast ballots — and because kibbutz members were excluded since yesterday’s elections were limited to municipalities.
But Smith said these factors were corrected by computer last night. The new results showed Labor leading Likud by 48-46 in the hypothetical election. They also predicted the elimination of such splinter factions as Shulamit Aloni’s Civil Rights Movement and the one-man Samuel Flatto-Sharon faction. The former Democratic Movement for Change (DMC) which has split into two small factions also fared poorly in the poll.
EARLY ELECTIONS POSSIBLE
Likud politicians generally scoffed at the results. Nevertheless, Likud Minister Moshe Nissim mentioned them to Premier Menachem Begin when he briefed him on the municipal election results by telephone yesterday. Begin was reportedly not impressed by the television poll forecasts but agreed to convene the party leadership when he returns from Canada to consider the possibility of calling early elections. Avraham Sharir, chairman of the Likud Knesset faction, said he was certain of a Likud victory in a general election and that he would recommend that the government call one immediately after a peace treaty is signed with Egypt to get a fresh mandate.
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