Intelligence Chief Says Syrians Want to Avoid All-out Conflict

Gen. Ehud Barak, the new chief of military intelligence, said yesterday that Syria is determined not to pull its forces out of Lebanon but wants to avoid an all-out conflict with Israel. According to Barak, the Syrians may opt for small scale provocations such as attempts to shoot down Israeli aircraft over Lebanon. He also stressed that Israel is closely watching Soviet involvement in Syria.

Barak spoke at his first meeting with the media since he replaced Gen. Yehoshua Seguy. Seguy retired as chief of military intelligence after he was severely criticized in the report of the committee of inquiry into the Sabra and Shatila refugee camp massacres.

Barak said Syria was unalterably opposed to the Israel-Lebanon agreement signed May 17 as a matter of principle, not a bargaining chip. The Syrians have a long term strategic interest in Lebanon and feel the accord is a blow to their security, he said. At the same time, Damascus believes time is on its side and it has room to maneuver while Israel comes under increasing pressure to get out of Lebanon, Barak said.

Meanwhile, the Syrians will seek to undermine the accord intercepting Israeli planes and deploying artillery and ground-to-air missiles in Lebanon. Barak said Israel would “take suitable measures” with regard to the Soviet presence in Syria. He said Soviet experts were there at both the command and field levels but not Soviet soldiers. Barak estimated that the Russians had some 2,000 advisors in Syria and 2,000-3,000 manning the Soviet SAM-5 anti-aircraft missiles deployed in Syria.

The intelligence chief discounted the threat to Palestine Liberation Organization chief Yasir Arafat from dissident members of his own Al Fatah group. He said Arafat’s situation is not critical and is probably exaggerated by the media. But if Arafat gives in he will be weakened and the chance of a PLO pull-out from Lebanon would be reduced, Barak said.