NEWS ANALYSIS Israelis seeking new course as death toll mounts in Lebanon

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JERUSALEM, March 1 (JTA) — Some Israelis believe their army should withdraw unilaterally from southern Lebanon. Others say the fighting should be expanded to include raids on Beirut. But whatever their differences, most Israelis believe something has to be done to get Israel out of the Lebanese quagmire. The debate was given added urgency Sunday, when an Israeli general was among four Israelis killed by a roadside bomb planted by Hezbollah gunmen in the southern Lebanon security zone. The latest fatalities came only days after three Israeli officers were killed in a Hezbollah ambush. According to a recent poll, some two-thirds of Israeli respondents believe their government is not doing enough to end the fighting that dates back to 1982, when Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon aimed at rooting out Palestinian terrorists. This dissatisfaction, which comes less than three months before the Israeli elections, is not lost on Israel’s leaders. But just the same, it appears clear that they do not know which course of action to adopt. Israeli officials, who have at their disposal the strongest army in the Middle East, keep batting about the same proposals that have been a part of the debate for years. Unlike other issues, where there is a clear division between the political left and right, solutions offered to end the Lebanon quandary cut across party lines. In the Likud Party, for example, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a hard-line stance against Hezbollah after Sunday’s fatalities. But some of his supporters within the party continue to speak out in favor of a unilateral Israeli withdrawal. At the same time, some members of Netanyahu’s government are calling on Israel to target major infrastructure sites in and around Beirut as part of an effort to get the Lebanese government to back off from its stance that any withdrawal from the region be unilateral. This is the position of Public Security Minister Avigdor Kahalani, who said at a recent Cabinet meeting, “We should turn off the lights in Beirut.” Last year, Lebanon and Syria, the leading power broker in the region, rejected an Israeli proposal, based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 425, calling for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon alongside security guarantees from Lebanon that attacks would not be launched on Israel from its soil. Another political figure seeking an escalation is Uzi Landau, the hawkish chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, who believes that Syria, which has tens of thousands of troops in Lebanon, should begin sharing the pain. “The Syrians should know that as long as Israeli soldiers die in roadside bomb attacks, Syrian soldiers could return home in caskets,” he said. The Labor Party is likewise divided, with Knesset member Yossi Beilin leading the pro-withdrawal camp, which questions the more than 13-year-old strategy of having some 1,500 Israeli soldiers stationed in southern Lebanon to protect northern Israeli communities from Hezbollah attacks. “It isn’t a security zone,” he said recently. “It’s a death trap.” But other key Labor officials warn that a unilateral withdrawal would render the entire Galilee a battlefront in the ongoing struggle with Hezbollah. As the debate rages on, President Ezer Weizman is among the most vocal supporters of seeking an overall understanding with Syria, which for years has been using Hezbollah as a proxy to secure Israeli concessions regarding the Golan Heights. Labor leader Ehud Barak also sees negotiations with Damascus as the key to resolving the Lebanon morass. Barak, who said Sunday that he opposes a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, recalled that in 1995, when Israel was engaged in negotiations with Syria, quiet prevailed along the Lebanese front. The Israeli general killed in Sunday’s roadside bombing — Brig. Gen. Erez Gerstein, 38 — was the head of a liaison unit with the South Lebanon Army, Israel’s ally in the region. Killed along with him were Sgt. Imad Abu Rish, 34, and Staff Sgt. Omer Elkabetz, 22. A reporter for Israel Radio, Ilan Roeh, 32, was also killed in the bombing. Sunday’s casualties prompted political observers to predict that Netanyahu would quickly retaliate, given the ongoing Israeli election campaign. Indeed, Netanyahu reacted angrily to news of the latest fatalities. “Israel cannot tolerate these kinds of repeated attacks on its territory, on its citizens, on its soldiers,” he said. Hinting at swift retribution, he added that the Israeli army “will know what to do in response.” That response came Sunday night, when Israeli jets launched their heaviest strikes in years against Hezbollah targets deep within Lebanon. But, countering the observers’ predictions, Israeli security officials subsequently said there would be no further escalation of the air strikes if Hezbollah refrains from firing Katyushas at Israel. Earlier Sunday morning, two Katyusha rockets fired from Lebanon struck northern Israel, causing light property damage and sending one Israeli woman into shock. Fearing further attacks, residents of northern Israel on Monday sought refuge in bomb shelters and canceled Purim parties. Tempering the hawks’ desire for retaliation is the knowledge that an escalation could have an unpredictable effect on the upcoming elections. Israel’s military operations in Lebanon were a key factor in determining the outcome of the 1996 race for prime minister. In April of that year, during Israel’s Operation Grapes of Wrath campaign against Hezbollah, Israeli shelling of a U.N. base in southern Lebanon resulted in the deaths of at least 91 Lebanese refugees who had taken shelter there. Many Israeli Arabs retaliated for that action by refusing to vote in the election for prime minister, a move that denied the incumbent, Shimon Peres, their much-needed support. Netanyahu won that election by a razor-thin margin. Meanwhile the steady toll of Israeli casualties in Lebanon prompted a demonstration Sunday by several dozen people outside the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, where they demanded a unilateral Israeli withdrawal. One of Sunday’s casualties was a fierce opponent of unilateral withdrawal. Gerstein, the highest-ranking Israeli casualty in Lebanon since 1982, said in a radio interview in June that talk of a unilateral pullback endangered Israeli forces in the security zone by raising doubts among the South Lebanon Army about the depth of the Jewish state’s commitment in the region. “Someone who is afraid you will unilaterally pull out, leaving them behind, is not going to fully cooperate with the present effort,” he said. Indeed, Sunday’s attack occurred when an army convoy was on its way to pay a condolence visit to the family of a South Lebanon Army officer killed in recent fighting. The head of the Israeli army’s northern command said an initial inquiry did not show that Hezbollah gunmen knew in advance that Gerstein was in the convoy.

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