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No News is Good News: Unusual Quiet Reigns at Border

January 24, 2005
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Normally, a botched Palestinian attack on Israeli troops would raise no eyebrows. It would become just another dry statistic recorded in more than four years of fighting. But the mine that was detonated alongside an Israeli tank in the southern Gaza Strip on Sunday, causing no casualties, was noteworthy in that it happened at all. Otherwise, absolute quiet reigned, a testimony to truce talks led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

“The dialogue is making very good progress,” Abbas told Palestine Television in an interview. “I can say we are bound to reach an agreement very soon.”

Just over the border with Israel, there was another show of confidence. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon convened his Cabinet in Sderot in an act of solidarity with residents reeling from months of Palestinian rocket strikes.

“There is calm now,” Sharon told fellow ministers, alluding to Abbas’ efforts. “We don’t know if this is a genuine change yet. We hope so. But one thing is clear — if terrorism resumes, we will act” militarily.

Earlier, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said that Abbas and terrorist groups led by Hamas had reached a cease-fire deal, but this was hotly denied by the Palestinians.

“We are still studying the issue of a cease-fire and there has been no decision in this regard,” said a spokesman for the Al-Aksa Brigade, a terrorist wing of Abbas’ Fatah faction.

What appeared to be clear, from various Palestinian reports, was that a more informal cease-fire agreement had been reached. It would be in force for a month — the period that independent analysts believe the newly appointed Abbas needs to reform his security forces.

In a major step, Abbas deployed thousands of Palestinian Authority police around Gaza’s border with Israel last week, providing a human buffer to ward off rocket launches.

But for a lasting truce, Abbas aides say, Israel will have to reciprocate by scaling back its military operations and releasing Palestinian security prisoners.

That may prove agreeable to Israel, which already has agreed to coordinate security with the Palestinian Authority before its planned withdrawal from Gaza later this year.

“Until Abbas proves himself serious about diplomacy, a strategy of coexistence, we are thinking in terms of tactics,” a Sharon confidant said. “There is nothing wrong tactically with helping his truce along.”

But the calm is fragile. Senior Israeli security sources said Jerusalem would ask for U.S. help in Abbas’ efforts — not to apply more pressure on the Palestinian leader, but to look out for any intervention by Syria or Iran.

“The Syrians and Iranians do not want quiet,” a source said. “We believe they are doing their utmost to orchestrate an attack by their Palestinian proxies.”

Most attention is being paid to the northern West Bank, where the Al-Aksa Brigade takes orders and money from the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

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