Gallup has new Jewish numbers based on its aggregate tracking from April 1-30, including interviews with close to 800 Jewish voters, and nearly 600 Jewish Democratic voters.
The press release spins the data as a positive for Obama: He’s not that far behind Hillary among Jewish Democratic voters (43%-50%) and does about as well as she does among Jewish voters in a matchup against John McCain (she beats McCain 66%-27%, Obama wins 61%-32%).
Of course, Jewish Republicans will probably be quick to note that 27% or 32% would mean an improvement for McCain over the 24% of the Jewish vote that President Bush’s won in 2004 against John Kerry. But considering that very little attention is being paid right now to McCain’s pro-life record and his other conservative domestic positions, it’s probably way too early to argue that McCain is poised to make serious inroads among Jews.
That said, Kerry did do about five points worse among Jews than Bill Clinton and Al Gore did; so, if nothing else, these Gallup numbers and past history suggest that – if he were to face Obama – McCain might have a better shot at holding on to the gains that Bush made between 2000 (when he took just 19% of the Jewish vote) and 2004.