Welcome to Political Points, Garden State edition, where we’ll have onion rings with that by 10:30 am every weekday morning, from now until Election Day
**Tevi Troy, a deputy health secretary in President George W. Bush‘s second term, scopes the Jewish vote in Politico and predicts that while Jews likely will continue to favor Democrats in presidential runs, the ground may be shifting on the local level.
One reason for the apparent fluidity of the Jewish vote could be President Barack Obama’s perceived tough stance on Israel, as compared to some of his predecessors. According to an American Jewish Committee poll this spring, Obama’s approval rating is now 57 percent among Jews, a significant drop from the 78 percent who supported him in 2008.
Israel, however, is not the only factor that drives the Jewish vote. Jewish voters, like other voters, are worried about the economy, the deficit, and health care, and these issues increase in importance in the state and local elections that take place in an off-year election. In the aggregate and in national elections, the Jewish vote appears likely to remain Democratic for the foreseeable future. But Jewish voters in state elections across the country could significantly change our political landscape in November.
**Tevi, now with the Hudson Institute, cites two New Jersey examples where his argument has borne out and might yet bear out: Gov. Chris Christie, Tevi says, earned a robust 38 percent Jewish vote last year, and Rush Holt faces a challenge from Scott Sipprelle bolstered by Rabbis for Sipprelle. Part of the conservative Jewish beef against Holt is that he signed a J Street-backed letter that called on the Obama administration to pressure Israel to ease its blockade of the Gaza Strip. (Holt is a J Street endorsee.)
Holt, on the other hand, has the backing of Lonny Kaplan, the former AIPAC president, which is definitely not nothing. Nate Silver predicts a win for Holt, but Holt’s not taking any chances in the 12th (think: The Brunswicks.). This week he debated Sipprelle at a Young Israel shul in East Brunswick, and made no bones about his love for Israel. Per the Star Ledger:
On America’s policy toward Middle East peace, both candidates said they supported an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Sipprelle criticized Holt for his signing of the so-called “Gaza 54 letter,” correspondence sent to President Barack Obama in January calling for Israel to allow a greater flow of humanitarian assistance into the Hamas-controlled territory.
Rejecting Sipprelle’s characterization of the mailing as a “pressure-Israel letter,” Holt said humanitarian aid to Gaza was perfectly within Israel’s policy.
Further, he argued that he has been an ardent friend of Israel’s throughout his 12-year tenure in Congress and pointed to his sponsorship and authorship of legislation establishing sanctions against Iran as proof.
“I have had Israel in my heart my whole life, my daughter lived there,“ he said. ”I will not be lectured to by someone who has been a Johnny-come-lately to the Israel issue.”
**It’s not just Garden State Dems not taking chances on the Jewish vote. Silver says Rep. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.), in the 7th, is a cinch for reelection, but that didn’t stop him from from stopping by Congregation Israel in Springfield for kiddush, says the New Jersey Jewish News.
**Ben Chouake, president of NORPAC, one of the biggest pro-Israel political action committees, is going far afield from his native New Jersey and out on a limb for a longtime friend: The pac is backing Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who lost her primary against Tea Partier Joe Miller and who is comnducting a write-in campaign.
Ben is a great interview, because he’s candid and unabashed, and that comes out in this e-blast to NORPAC supporters:
With all our requests for help, why would we single this race out. First because of it’s importance, Senator Murkowski if re-elected will be either the Ranking member or Chairperson of the Energy Committee, second because every donation in this race will be recognized and appreciated, third because it is an opportunity to be part of an historic race, and last because we admire the brass of this Senator who is going to win or go down swinging.
Nate Silver predicts it for Miller, but look how Murkowski is closing in.
**Across the Hudson, New York State Sen. Eric Schneiderman, the Democrat vying for the state’s attorney-general job against GOP nominee and Staten Island D.A. Daniel Donovan, says he’ll set up a task force to prosecute Iran sanctions-busters. Backing him are U.S. Reps. Gary Ackerman, Eliot Engel, Nita Lowey, Jerry Nadler and Anthony Weiner (all NY, all Dems, all Jewish) and Assembly member Dov Hikind.
**Weiner and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) oppose the announced U.S. sale of $60 billion in arms to Saudi Arabia, even though Israel apparently supports it (and will profit from its stake in some of the companies making the armaments). Here’s Weiner, who’s mad that State announced the sale when everyone’s so busy trying to keep their Hill jobs:
Hiding this in a recess announcement is a sign of how unpopular it is. It’s bad policy that now is further tainted by a shameful process.
As promised, I plan to introduce a resolution with my colleagues to block this arms deal. Saudi Arabia has not behaved like an ally of the United States. They have a history of financing terrorism, and it is a nation that teaches hate of Christians and Jews. They should not be rewarded with a weapons upgrade.
Furthermore, this deal would destabilize the Middle East and undermine the security of Israel, our one true ally in the region.
**Hillary Rodham Clinton earns applause at the American Task Force on Palestine dinner when she calls for the immediate release of Gilad Shalit. (And Israel Matzav: I’ve spent some of my happier years as a desk editor. "Immediate and unconditional" would have gotten my red pen for redundancy. Immediate is unconditional.
**Clinton wants the Palestinians and Israelis back at the table, and soon. The Obama administration is dangling carrots a-plenty — including security and diplomatic guarantees — to lure Israel into re-freezing settlement building, which would bring the Palestinians back in.
In two installments, Politico’s Laura Rozen rounds up reporting suggesting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting out the midterms in hopes of a GOP sweep — and the prospect of greater leverage on the White House.
**Rep. Michael McMahon (D-N.Y.) earns Orthodox Jewish endorsements (his district covers Staten Island and a patch of Brooklyn). He also wants U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder to dig into allegations of judicial impropriety in the fraud case of Agriprocessors boss Sholom Rubahskin.
**George Soros hearts Haim Saban? Umm, probably not. But Mickey Kaus, now blogging at Newsweek says that differences on Israel (Soros backs J Street, Saban AIPAC) aren’t keeping them from joining the effort to quash an initiative that would yank districting out of the hands of the California legislature.
**The National Jewish Democratic Council is running a "Day of Action," a get out the vote effort, nationwide on Sunday. The Republican Jewish Coalition is chockablock with events in the coming days, including an appearance by former Bush administration spokesman Ari Fleischer in Chicago, where a lot of RJC attention has been focused, backing candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) for the Senate and Joel Pollak and Bob Dold for the House.
**The RJC is running TV ads in the Philadelphia area targeting Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), the candidate for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat — not for J Street deviations from dogma, as in the past, but for backing civilian trials for terrorists. I wrote about this the other day, but hesitated to post the video without a countering video.
Now one has emerged, also in the Philly area, but not from Sestak or, for that matter, from Democrats. Human Rights First, a watchdog, has corralled a passel of generals who oppose military trials. Its ad argues that civilian trials are much more effective, and a better fit for the constitution.
Here are the ads. The RJC:
And Human Rights First:
**From Tuesday, here’s my sampling of races to watch around the land.
Keep those emails coming, rkampeas@jta.org
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