The Republican Jewish Coalition’s executive director, Matt Brooks, tweeted that Mitt Romney will win 289 or more electoral votes. Regarding the Jewish vote, he predicts: “Romney gets big bump from ’08 & GOP will have increased in 5/6 last elect.”
Former Bush administration press secretary Ari Fleischer had a very specific guess on the outcome: “My prediction: Romn 50.1%-49.5%. Romn w minimum 271 EVs (FL, VA, CO, WI, NH). 309 EVs if he takes OH&PA. Pres-elect Romney,” he tweeted.
Politico yesterday profiled the Romney campaign’s pollster, Neil Newhouse, whose own polling has offered a sunnier outlook for his candidate than other public polling.
The basic issue is whether Newhouse’s internal forecasts and assumptions about the composition of the 2012 electorate are correct versus the ones made by the Obama campaign, which have tended to look more like public polling. If Newhouse is right, the majority of public pollsters will have egg on their faces. If he’s wrong, there will be post-mortems questioning his take.
It is because of Newhouse’s strong reputation that many Republicans have believed his assertions that Democrats are misreading the math, and why members of Romney’s campaign have stayed positive even when things have seemed publicly to be slipping from reach.