The New York Jewish Week’s Gary Rosenblatt interviews David Passig, a professor at Bar-Ilan University, about his look-into-the-future book “2048.”
Seeking to understand why nations go to war and are willing to send their children into battle, he employs a methodology that explores the convergence of a nation’s “six key variables: geography, topography, demography, economy, technologies and scientific developments.” In “2048,” he offers detailed analyses of these factors in writing about the U.S., Russia, Turkey, key Arab countries and Israel. His overall thesis is that “a new historic era is now about to dawn in the Middle East,” and will play out in violent ways.
Turkey, he writes, will become an increasingly influential power, of importance to both the U.S. and Russia, which will renew their major struggle for dominance. Russia and Iran will seek to “wreak havoc on the front between Israel, Syria and Lebanon.” Israel, driven by strong fears for its survival, will launch a major attack to “wipe out large areas deep inside Syria and Lebanon” in a devastating war that will “reshape regional history for years to come.” And years later it will be Turkey, not the U.S., that will play a major role in overseeing a peace treaty between Israel and the Arab states.