Analysis: Syria Returns to Center Stage of Moves for Peace in Middle East

The Syria-Israel track has returned to center stage of the Middle East peace process.

There are persistent reports, attributed to highly placed sources, that Israel and Syria are close to issuing a historic declaration of principles that will serve as the backbone for future negotiations.

According to observers, the revival of talks, which were stalemated for months, is the main outcome of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s 10-day visit to the United States and Canada, which ended last weekend.

Although specifics are vague, politicians and pundits are now clearly turning their attention away from the dramatic breakthrough between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization and even from the slow but steady progress on the Israel-Jordan front.

Instead, they are concentrating on the prospects for an accord between Israel and Syria.

According to reports, Israel would declare that it recognizes Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and Syria would declare that it is prepared to establish peace and diplomatic relations with Israel.

This exchange of statements, according to some sources, may be the goal that U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher sets for himself when he visits the region in mid-December.

Christopher had a similar goal when he was in the region last July, but the signing of the Israel-PLO accord in September temporarily reassigned priorities.

At that time, Rabin made it clear that he was not interested in pursuing the Syrian track until the Israeli public had been given a chance to absorb the implications of the agreement with the Palestinians.

But now, according to sources here, the prime minister has told President Clinton that he is prepared to resume serious peacemaking with the Syrians.

According to this scenario, Israel and Syria would resume their suspended negotiations in Washington after the start of the new year.

A variation of this scenario, which is also much discussed here these days, is that Christopher will try to keep Damascus “in play” while Israel proceeds toward realizing the first, crucial phase of its accord with the PLO.

Israel and the PLO are due to conclude their negotiations for implementing the self-rule accord by Dec. 13 — when, reportedly no coincidence, Christopher plans to be in the region.

Implementation of the accord will then proceed in phases during the following four months.

According to the variation of the Syria scenario, President Hafez Assad would have to demonstrate his commitment to the peace process during the crucial four-month implementation period.

Assad would have to demonstrate a deliberate policy of non-interference — both in regard to the Israel-PLO track as well as to Israel-Jordan relations.

Israel and Jordan, it is now clear, have initialed a fairly detailed declaration of principles that can lead quickly to a full peace treaty between the two countries — provided Jordan’s King Hussein has the political will to move toward peace.

Israeli observers say Hussein — despite allowing his brother, Crown Prince Hassan, and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres to initial a statement of principles earlier this month in Amman — is reluctant to take the final step toward a peace accord with Israel without a green light from Syria.

By giving that green light, Assad would go a long way toward proving to Rabin that he is earnest about putting peace negotiations with Israel back on track.

However, all is not in sync with this in the Israeli political community.

Efforts are mounting to pass legislation that would limit any future concessions on the Golan Heights.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, touring the Golan Heights on Sunday, said his party planned to introduce a bill this week or next in hopes that like-minded Laborites would set party politics aside and vote for it.