Behind the Headlines Agranat Committee’s Final Report May Produce New Political Struggle

The Agranat Committee’s final report on the Yom Kippur War, which is expected to be submitted to the Cabinet next week, could precipitate a new political struggle in Israel–not because of its findings but because it may revive the political career of former Defense Minister Moshe Dayan. That possibility was the subject of intensive speculation in political circles and the press during the past few days as the blue ribbon panel headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Shimon Agranat put the final touches to its report.

The Committee’s preliminary report, published last April 3, exonerated Dayan of blame for Israel’s lack of preparedness when Egypt and Syria attacked on Oct. 6, 1973. But it found considerable fault with Israel’s top military leadership, forced the resignation of Chief of Staff Gen. David Elazar and created a climate of public dissatisfaction with the nation’s military establishment that forced Dayan himself eventually to resign from the Cabinet of former Premier Golda Meir.

The Agranat Committee’s final report, covering the first three days of the Yom Kippur War when Israeli forces suffered severe setbacks in Sinai, is widely expected to give Dayan a clean bill of health, thus catapulting him back into the political arena.

FEAR OF NEW HAWKISH BLOC

This is causing concern among Knesset moderates of the Labor Alignment that Dayan, who still enjoys considerable support in Labor’s Rafi wing, will form a new bloc to challenge the foreign policies of Premier Yitzhak Rabin. The reassertion of Dayan’s hawkish views on territorial matters at a time when the Rabin government is seeking second stage negotiations with Egypt that must involve certain territorial concessions, could create a serious situation for Israel, these moderates fear.

Mordechai Ben Porat, one of the strongest Dayan supporters in the Labor Alignment, has denied that any campaign is planned on behalf of the former Defense Minister. Yossi Sarid, a Labor “dove” and opponent of Dayan, agreed that no such drive appeared to be in the making. But whether or not a formal pro-Dayan bloc is formed, his total exoneration by the Agranat Committee is expected to create a new situation in the Labor Alignment.

Although Dayan has lectured on Israeli policy matters at Bar Ilan University recently, he has remained aloof from politics and has had relatively little to say in the Knesset where he retains his seat. He is expected to become more vocal if given absolution in the final Agranat report. He could emerge as a leader of internal opposition inside his own party or even carry his opposition beyond party boundaries.

Several options apparently remain open to him. The Labor “doves,” therefore, are reportedly mobilizing against a possible Dayan-led Rafi bid for ascendency in the party. For that reason, it appears, they have agreed to drop their opposition to the Maale Adumim industrial development project on the West Bank which is backed by the Rabin Cabinet.