Behind the Headlines Chances for War Much Greater Now Than a Year Ago

While Israeli political leaders are preoccupied with intensive bargaining for an interim accord with Egypt in Sinai, military circles here and other observers have expressed increasingly pessimistic views over the prospects of any significant peace settlement with Israel’s neighbors and, in fact, have strong doubts that the Arabs will settle for anything less than the shrinkage of Israel to its 1967 boundaries.

Should they ever succeed in forcing Israel back to the old lines which Israel insists are insecure and indefensible, the Arabs would set the stage for a further attrition of Israel by demanding the rights of the Palestinian people and thereby hope for the ultimate destruction of the Jewish State. In fact, military circles feel that chances of war are much greater now than a year ago.

That gloomy scenario, though by no means shared by all Israelis, is based on both military and political developments of the past year. A year ago, Israeli military circles point out, Egypt and Syria were in an adverse position owing to the severe losses they suffered in the Yom Kippur War. But since July, 1974, the situation has changed. The Egyptian and Syrian forces have been re-equipped to their pre-Yom Kippur War strength and Syria, in fact, may be even stronger militarily than in October, 1973, the military circles say.

ARABS BLUNT IN TALK OF WAR

Furthermore, they point out, while the political situation was obscure a year ago, the Arabs today are increasingly blunt in their statements and their talk now is openly of a new war rather than peace. President Anwar Sadat of Egypt has declared publicly that peace with Israel is not attainable in this generation. He made those remarks despite the ongoing negotiations for a Sinai settlement and they echoed the Arab summit meeting at Rabat, Morocco last October when the Arab states conferred on the Palestine Liberation Organization the status of representative and spokesman for the Palestinian people.

What the Arabs want, these Israeli circles say, is peace without negotiations and without concessions on their part. They want Israel back to its June, 1967 lines and not an inch less and would then start dictating demands on behalf of the Palestinians. In short, they say, the conditions of the 1974 Rabat summit remain operative — no negotiations, no recognition and no peace with Israel.

There can be no progress toward peace, the Israelis say, while the Arabs constantly escalate their economic and political warfare against Israel in the form of the boycott, the oil weapon and attempts to oust Israel from the United Nations.

NO OVERT VIOLATIONS BY EGYPT

Assessing the immediate military situation, Israeli circles concede that there have been no overt violations by the Egyptians of the January, 1974 disengagement agreement. To the best of Israel’s knowledge, the Egyptians have not advanced anti-aircraft missile batteries into the limited forces zone west of the Suez Canal or on the eastern banks of the canal. But they have prepared sites for such batteries on both banks of the waterway and Israel regards this as a violation of the disengagement terms.

Similarly, Israel has no information that the Soviet MIG-25 jets, flown by Russian pilots, have been withdrawn from Egypt. The MIG-25s were stationed in Egypt before the Yom Kippur War and flew reconnaissance missions over Israel-held territory.

According to direct Israeli observation, Egypt’s army, navy and air force were placed on a state of alert two weeks ago when Egyptian Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy announced that his government would not agree to extend the UNEF mandate which expired July 24.

(This was confirmed by President Sadat in Khartoum today when he said that Egypt’s armed forces were in full mobilization and under 24 hour alert. He told a press conference in the Sudan capital that “The time we feel that diplomatic efforts are of no use, we will have nothing left before us but to prepare for another battle.” Sadat said Israel had no option but to withdraw totally from occupied Arab territories and restore the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.)

CLASHES INEVITABLE IF UNEF WITHDRAWN

The Egyptians subsequently reversed themselves on UNEF but Israeli security circles are convinced that had UNEF been forced to withdraw, clashes between Israeli and Egyptian forces would have been inevitable. Each side would have attempted to seize as much as possible of the buffer zone evacuated by the UN forces.

That immediate crisis has been resolved, temporarily, but it is the opinion not only of Israel but of the Security Council that the tension will be renewed on an even more dangerous scale as the new UNEF deadline of Oct. 24 approaches. Should the UNEF mandate be terminated then, Israeli circles fear a re-play of the 1969-70 war of attrition between Israel and Egypt on an even more intensive scale as each side would try to prevent the other from gaining the initiative.

CONCERN CONTINUES OVER JORDAN

With regard to Israelis other neighbors, observers noted that there were no signs of a military alert in Saudi Arabia, Syria or Jordan during the recent crisis over UNEF. The Jordanians, nevertheless, are continuing to build up their fortifications on a line facing Israel and would doubtlessly use them as the jumping off point for an attack should they join in a new war against Israel.

They are more likely to join, Israeli circles say, if they receive the $350 million air defense system they seek from the United States which would provide an umbrella against Israeli air attacks on Jordan, Israelis are also seriously concerned that Jordan might once again give the PLO terrorists a free hand to operate from its territory.

On the other hand, security circles here seem convinced that Jordan is more concerned over the effects on its own sovereignty if the PLO was allowed freedom to operate from bases in Jordan.