The election of Israel’s next President by the Knesset March 22 will be close-run race, with the winner squeaking in by a slim margin of votes. This is the universal prediction in the political community following the submission last Friday by the Likud coalition and the Labor Alignment opposition of the names of their candidates. The Likud candidate is Supreme Court Justice Menachem Elon, an Orthodox scholar. The Alignment candidate is MK Chairm Herzog, a former Ambassador to the United Nations and Israel Defense Force General.
While the Likud coalition majority — 64-56 — could ostensibly ensure Elon the victory, pundits note that in a secret ballot — required in voting for the President — surprises cannot be ruled out. Moreover, Elon’s reliance on all coalition members does not seem iron-clad: Tami with its three seats is seen as questionable.
Its leader, Aharon Abu Hatzeira, was quoted yesterday as saying that the party’s decision-making committees would be convened this week to instruct the three MKs on how to vote. Abu Hatzeira was also quoted as saying that the fact that he had joined with other coalition faction leaders in endorsing Elon did not necessarily oblige Tami to vote for him.
POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF A SECRET BALLOT
Tami is considered a weak link in Elon’s support because the party’s top patron, Nessim Gaon of Geneva, is related by marriage to Herzog.
In addition, pundits feel that in the secret vote other coalition members may give their ballots to Herzog on the grounds that Elon, an ordained rabbi, and ultra-observant Jew, may seem “too Orthodox,” especially to some of the Likud-Liberal MKs.
Herzog, on the other hand, though also traditional in his religious observances, is considered more liberal. He may also benefit from the very fact of his being a Knesset member, well liked within all factions, and much better known among the general public by dint of his former public careers.
But coalition floor managers, led by Premier Menachem Begin himself, are expected to make strenuous efforts to ensure their candidate’s election. Likud sources have already floated the veiled threat that Elon’s failure to be elected could trigger a coalition crisis, with Begin engineering early elections. This prospect is not viewed with any relish by the smaller coalition partners.
The balloting rules for the Presidency require an absolute majority (61) on the first and second ballots, and a simple majority thereafter.
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