Behind the Headlines Next Steps on the Road to Peace

With Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger come and gone–and already planning his next visit in less than a month, speculation is rife in press and public here as to what ideas he took home with him, and what ideas he will bring back on March 8. Yesterday’s Haaretz presented a detailed list of what it claimed would be the Secretary’s proposals. Israel was to cede the Abu Rodeis oil field and receive in return an Egyptian pledge–to the United States–to keep the peace for two years. Haaretz listed numerous other provisions of the would-be settlement.

But top members of the Israeli negotiating team which spent more than 12 hours with Kissinger last week insisted that the talks had never gotten down to concrete specifics. All that is still to come in the diplomatic three-way contacts through Washington that will now take place, and in the Secretary’s next visit which is intended to be an intensive shuttle effort to achieve a settlement.

One top negotiator was hard put to explain exactly what last week’s visit had achieved. He spoke of its psychological importance in preparing the groundwork for more concrete talks. Each side, moreover, and the Secretary himself, obtained a clearer picture of the other side’s thinking.

EACH SIDE STUCK TO SCRIPT

In a television broadcast Friday night, Premier Yitzhak Rabin confirmed that the Secretary has stayed pretty much within the “exploring” brief which he announced at the outset of last week’s trip. The concrete talks, Rabin said, would come in the next visit. The Israeli team, the Premier went on, stuck to Israel’s official, Cabinet-approved proposal: a 30-50 kilometer pullback excluding the Mitle and Gidi passes and the oil fields in exchange for meaningful political concessions.

But Rabin admitted that his own public “recommendation” (on ABC-TV last weekend) that Israel cede the oil fields and the passes in return for a formal renunciation by Egypt of the state of war–had also been discussed. Rabin stressed that this broader proposal was his own personal view and had not yet gained Cabinet approval. But he is believed to be reasonably certain that all the ministers would agree with it.

Kissinger made it clear in his report from Cairo Thursday night that President Anwar Sadat certainly does not agree with Rabin’s proposals. Egypt maintains the firm position that a contractual non-belligerency accord can only be contemplated in the context of an overall Israeli pullback. It is within those two opposing positions that Kissinger will attempt to maneuver, perhaps offering a compromise of his own as he did when last year’s disengagement negotiations threatened to end in deadlock.

WILL PRESS FOR SOME CONCESSIONS

Some observers believe Kissinger is likely to urge Israel to cede at least the oil fields–with the U.S. undertaking to ensure its fuel requirements in time of emergency–in return for something midway between contractual, open ended non-belligerency and a more limited Egyptian undertaking. Abu Rodeis presently supplies about half of Israel’s needs.

Whatever the accord that is, hopefully, agreed on, Israeli officials say that Israel will insist on a substantial time lag between signing and implementation. Israel will want to observe the reaction to the accord in Egypt. In Syria, and further afield before it actually undertakes strategic withdrawals in Sinai.

Thus, if an accord can be signed this spring, Israel will want to wait until the year’s end before executing the pullbacks in order to be prepared in its present defense lines for any sudden Syrian onslaught that might draw in the Egyptians despite their undertakings to the contrary.

Israel, moreover, will watch for any resumption of Soviet arms supplies to Egypt. A massive new supply would prove that Egypt does not sincerely intend to abide by the accord, Israeli officials say. Finally, Israel will want to ensure that the reconvening of the Geneva conference, predicated for later this year, will not vitiate the Israel-Egypt accord. “Geneva would have to ‘run in neutral’ as far as Egypt was concerned.” one top official remarked.