Behind the Headlines Questionable Views

Two recently expressed views by Israeli leaders — that the danger of war with Syria has diminished and that a victory by Iran over Iraq would be a preferable outcome of the Persian Gulf war from Israel’s standpoint — were challenged over the weekend by Israeli experts on military and political factors in the Middle East.

Zeev Schiff, the widely respected military analyst of Haaretz, suggested Sunday that statements by Premier Yitzhak Shamir and Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin that war with Syria is more theoretical than likely at this time, may be over-optimistic.

Prof. Moshe Maoz, an expert on Syria and other Arab countries, maintained in a weekend Israel Radio interview from Boston, where he is engaged in research at Harvard University, that a victorious Iran would pose a greater danger for Israel than Iraq.

And Dr. Amazia Bar-Am, a leading authority on Iraq, thought Israel should put out peace feelers toward Baghdad through some third party.

SYRIA’S MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Schiff noted that Rabin saw significance in the fact that Syria recently put a large number of its tanks and artillery into storage, a move forced by the country’s precarious economy.

“However, it would be an exaggeration to say that the storage of several hundred tanks and guns testifies to significant changes in Syria’s military capability or to a turn-about in Damascus’ national security conception,” Schiff wrote.

He noted that Syria has more than 4,000 tanks so that moth-balling a few hundred does not change its offensive capability. He pointed out that the Israel Defense Force also puts in storage reserve tanks and other equipment.

Moreover, Syria’s retrenchment is only on the ground, which demands caution in drawing hasty conclusions. “If the reductions were generated in the air force as well and were accompanied by the dismantling of a few combat corps and the grounding of planes, the matter would take on greater significance,” Schiff wrote. He advised Israel to wait until the next stage in the Syrian army’s reduction process before deciding how the IDF should act.

Maoz said in his radio interview that Syrian cuts have been in quantity, not quality. He noted Syria’s strategic weapons such as the Soviet-supplied SS-21 and SS-23 missiles, and chemical warheads.

Syria may not be ready to embark on a general war but it might try for a limited action, such as wresting part of the Golan Heights back from Israel and then seeking an in-place ceasefire, Maoz said.

CONSEQUENCE OF AN IRANIAN VICTORY

With respect to the Gulf war, Maoz warned that an Iranian victory would be followed by an increase in the influence of Moslem fundamentalism throughout the Middle East, endangering not only Israel but the stability of the Arab states.

He said the preferred outcome would be a stalemate which would lock Iranian and Iraqi forces in place and unavailable for outside adventures for years to come.

Bar-Am, the authority on Iraq, said that country is at the weakest point in its history. “And while they remain anti-Israel and anti-Zionist, they are pragmatic. So you have here an ideological commitment (Iran) as opposed to political, economic and military strength” (Iraq), he said.

“I am not sure they (the Iraqis) will moderate much, but I think there is a good chance that they will be willing to negotiate with us over certain issues. I don’t expect peace agreements but I would expect some kind of understanding that would be useful for both sides,” Bar-Am said.

The professor, who lectures at Haifa University and Hebrew University, added, “It’s worth trying, through mediators. If we don’t succeed, we haven’t lost anything.”