The Cabinet is expected to decide early next year on a phased redeployment of the Israel Defense Force in south Lebanon unless there is a breakthrough — considered highly unlikely at this point — in the Israel-Lebanon military security and withdrawal talks at Nakura, informed sources said this week.
The form the redeployment is expected to take, according to the sources, is a partial pullback of the IDF from the Awali River line in the western sector of the front but no immediate corresponding movement in the eastern sector, where the IDF faces Syrian forces.
After the partial redeployment is effected, policymakers will assess the new situation before recommending any further moves southward by the IDF, the sources said.
The Nakura talks, which recessed for two weeks beginning December 20, are due to be resumed on January 7. The Israelis have made it unequivocally clear that if by then the Lebanese persist in rejecting Israel’s proposals, there would be “nothing more to talk about” from Israel’s point of view.
PROPOSALS BY ISRAEL
Israel has proposed that the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) — which is sponsoring the Nakura talks — be made responsible for security in south Lebanon from the Litani River to the Awali River once that region is evacuated by the IDF.
Israel wants the zone south of the Litani and up to its northern borders to be policed by the South Lebanon Army (SLA). The Lebanese have insisted that their regular army is capable of ensuring security in all of south Lebanon and refuse to recognize the SLA, which they brand a puppet of Israel.
The 12 negotiating sessions so far held at Nakura have failed to narrow the gap. Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee Tuesday that the Cabinet will shortly have to consider unilateral options.
According to Rabin, these are; to maintain the status quo; to redeploy the IDF to shorter lines; or withdraw it entirely from Lebanese soil. Rabin attributed Lebanese intransigence to Syria’s strong influence over the Beirut government. He said the Syrian position has in fact hardened in the last two weeks.
Rabin reportedly did not state which of the three options he preferred. Premier Shimon Peres has publicly advocated unilateral withdrawal of the IDF to Israel’s borders in a single step. Rabin is said to favor a more cautious pullback. The phased partial withdrawal is seen as a synthesis of their respective views.
STEPS IN CABINET’S DECISION
Informed sources said that once it is clear that no progress can be made at Nakura, the Cabinet would announce its new unilateral policy of phased withdrawal. The decision would be taken first by the 10-member inner Cabinet and then by the full Cabinet.
Political observers suggest that if Peres and Rabin come before the Cabinet united on the issue, they stand a good chance of winning over a solid majority of the ministers. A hard core of Likud ministers is expected to hold out against any withdrawal from Lebanon without ironclad security arrangements in advance.
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