Early Israeli Elections Expected Regardless of Knesset Debate Outcome

Elections will be held in Israel some time this year regardless of the outcome of tonight’s Knesset debate on two early election bills, most political observers believe. But the date of elections — whether this summer or next fall–will be determined in hard bargaining between the government and opposition.

The debate, scheduled to open this morning, was postponed to 5 p.m. local time by Knesset Speaker Menachem Savidor to allow several MKs visiting Argentina to fly home in time to vote. This drew a vigorous protest from Moshe Shahal, chairman of the Labor Alignment Knesset faction, but Savidor stood firm. (Late story, P. 3.)

The fate of the early election bills, one sponsored by Labor and the other by Tami, a coalition partner, may depend on the votes of several Likud Liberals who up to now have favored early elections. One of them, Dror Zeigerman who is on his way back from Argentina, was expected to vote for the Labor measure. But reports last night that he had changed his mind and was coming home to support the government, cast doubts on the outcome. Until then, most political pundits believed passage of an early elections bill was a virtual certainty.

A 60-60 vote split in the Knesset would defeat the measure. Former Premier Menachem Begin was expected to break his seven-month seclusion and attend today’s Knesset session if his vote was necessary to achieve that result. Begin has made no public appearances since he resigned last September. The media maintained a day-long vigil outside his suburban Jerusalem home to see if the former Likud leader would emerge.

While the government opposes the two elections bills, Premier Yitzhak Shamir is not, in principle, opposed to early elections, coalition sources said. He is aware that without the support of the three-man Tami faction, his parliamentary base would be too narrow for Likud to govern effectively.

But Shamir is determined to postpone elections as long as possible, at least well into next fall. By then, he and his Likud colleagues believe, government measures to improve the economic situation will have shown some results and Likud’s position with the voters will be strengthened.

Tami and Labor are pressing for elections early this summer. One of their arguments is that a prolonged election campaign will further drain the staggering economy and preclude any substantive political initiatives at home and abroad.

An early election bill, if adopted, would dissolve the Knesset. The bill would have to pass three readings in the Knesset. The setting of an election date would come later in the process.