Election Fever Grips Israel

Election fever gripped Israel after the Tami Party’s surprise announcement last nightthat it would introduce an early election bill in the Knesset this week. The speculation today was not over whether early elections will be held but how soon.

Premier Yitzhak Shamir is striving desperately to stave off early elections on grounds that an election campaign now would abort his government’s efforts to rescue the country’s floundering economy.

But most political pundits are convinced that the Likud-led coalition will not serve out its full term which expires in November, 1985. Accordingly, they expect Shamir to seek to postpone the elections at least until next fall.

By then, they say, the government’s new austerity economic program may show some tangible results, such as narrowing Israel’s $1 billion foreign trade gap and perhaps checking inflation. But the Labor opposition, which has an early elections bill of its own coming up for debate in the Knesset on Thursday, insists on an interval of no more than 60 days from the time the Knesset votes to dissolve itself until the voters go the polls. Tami wants an even shorter period — 45 days.

EXPECTED NEW LINEUP IN THE KNESSET

The consensus that early elections are inevitable stems from an expected new line up in the Knesset. The Labor Alignment, the opposition Shinui and the Hadash (Communist) parties plus the three Tami MKs could muster 59 votes, two short of a majority.

But former Knesset Speaker Yitzhak Berman, a Likud Liberal, has reiterated his intention to vote for the bill.

Other coalition waverers include Berman’s protege, Dror Zeigerman; independent MKs Mordechai Ben-Porat and Yigal Hurwitz, a former Finance Minister; and Avraham Melamed, of the National Religious Party.

Their votes would assure passage of an early elections bill, the only question being whether they will be on hand to vote. Zeigerman is presently in Argentina and Melamed is in South Africa. But the Likud bloc will also be deprived of a vote unless former Premier Menachem Begin shows up in the Knesset. Begin has been in seclusion since he resigned last September. He told Maariv today that he will decide only on Thursday whether to attend the Knesset debate.

The election bill calls for dissolution of the Knesset and setting a date for elections. Present law requires a 100-day interim, but it could be amended. Labor Party chairman Shimon Peres made it clear that he would like elections before the end of June because many Israeli families vacation abroad in the summer.

Likud hopes not only for improved economic conditions by the fall but an easing of the situation in Lebanon, an issue on which it is vulnerable. The election date is expected to be the subject of bitter inter-party wrangling.

SPECULATION OVER TAMI’S MOVE

There is also considerable speculation today as to why Tami leader Aharon Abu-Hatzeira made his bombshell announcement last night, only a few days after the Tami secretariate indicated the party would not seek early elections at this time.

Abu-Hatzeira expressed dissatisfaction with the way the Likud government is functioning, especially in the economic sphere. He indicated that the last straw was the 12 percent rise in inflation last month and predictions by experts that the cost of living will go even higher. This would hit hardest on Tami’s constituents, mainly impoverished Sephardim, many of them immigrants from Abu-Hatzeira’s native Morocco.

Some newspapers claimed today that he was acting on instructions from his patron, Nissim Gaon, a Geneva-based multimillionaire leader of Sephardic Jewry world-wide. Gaon reportedly sought a $300 million loan from the Israeli government to solve liquidity problems resulting from his inability to collect on loans he had made to Nigeria.

The Treasury confirmed today that Gaon had made such a request but was denied a loan. Tami MK BenZion Rubin vigorously denied today that there was any connection between Gaon’s problems and his party’s decision to ask for early elections.

UNSETTLED POSITION OF PARTIES AND LEADERS

Some observers believe Tami is anxious for early elections before former President Yitzhak Navon, who is Sephardic, attains a leadership position in the Labor Party and Deputy Premier David Levy, also Sephardic, rises to the top of Likud. With Sephardic leadership emerging in both major parties, Tami’s appeal as the main spokesman for the Oriental community would be diminished.

Tami is also said to want to go to the polls while the National Religious Party is in a state of disarray. Abu-Hatzeira, who defected from the NRP several years ago to form his own faction, believes Tami can take votes away from the NRP now but not later if current efforts by Interior Minister Yosef Burg succeed in strengthening the NRP. The latter therefore has a stake in postponing elections as long as possible.

The other Orthodox party, Aguda Israel, said today that it did not favor early elections but did not fear them. Public opinion polls showed Aguda retaining its present four mandates in the Knesset. But both Tami and Aguda could be threatened if the new Sephardic religious faction in Jerusalem, Shass, goes national. Shass has the backing of former Sephardic Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef.