IDF Said to Be Waiting to Prepare Position Papers on Golan Heights

Israel Defense Force analysts reportedly have not begun preparing assessments of the security ramifications of giving up the Golan Heights, even though it has been clear for weeks that Israel will be asked to do so if peace talks with Syria get under way in October, as planned.

The Israeli daily Ha’aretz quoted senior military officials Wednesday as saying that IDF analysts have decided to refrain from preparing position papers on the region’s future until asked to do so by the political leadership.

“The army has not been asked to prepare a paper on the future of the Golan Heights, and therefore it is not doing so,” a senior source told correspondent Reuven Pedatzur.

“No one is looking into the defense significance of the territory, the military significance of demilitarizing it or the other possible defense arrangements,” the source was quoted as saying.

The paper said IDF officials are concerned over reactions that might come from the political leadership if the army were to recommend various courses of action.

The officials are worried that if the IDF’s professional recommendations did not accord with the political goals of the policy-makers, the IDF could be asked to stop preparing position papers or, in the worst case, senior officers could be transferred from their posts, the paper said.

The story pointed out that even prior to the signing of the Camp David accords, the army was not asked to prepare analyses on what might happen if a peace agreement with Egypt were achieved.

CHIEF SAYS GOLAN IS ESSENTIAL

But some military sources quoted by Ha’aretz are concerned that if the peace process with Syria moves forward, no professional military assessments will be available to help formulate policy.

The IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Ehud Barak, made clear this week his belief that the Golan Heights are essential to Israel’s security and the IDF’s capacity to defend the country. Israel captured the territory from Syria in 1967 and, in effect, annexed it in December 1980.

But other military experts in Israel say that from a purely military perspective, it is possible to achieve satisfactory security arrangements with Syria, even if that would entail relinquishing territory in the Golan Heights. Demilitarizing the Golan Heights would obtain a good level of security for Israel, they say.

But Barak believes Syria will continue to be Israel’s biggest security threat for the foreseeable future.

“If a political process is opened, it might be a very long, sometimes frustrating process, with some opportunities and many risks,” he said in an interview Wednesday with Israel Radio.

“No one can, in my judgment, make any predictions about what the results may be at the end,” he said.

Faced with a lengthy and complicated politi-

cal process, fraught with both risks and opportunities, the IDF would have to maintain its strength for a long time to come, both because of the uncertainties of the peace process and in order to conduct negotiations from a position of strength, the IDF chief said.

That would require an investment of some 5 billion shekels, or more than $2 billion, by the end of this decade, Barak said, adding that he hoped such funds would be made available.

Barak said Syrian President Hafez Assad had agreed to peace talks with Israel after carefully considering his military situation and drawing practical conclusions on what he could and could not do at present.

The other Arab states have also carefully considered the IDF’s capabilities, Barak said, which have had a major influence on persuading the Arabs to consider direct negotiations with Israel.

SOVIET ARMS DEAL WENT SOUR

Ron Ben-Yishai, writing in the daily Yediot Achronot, agreed that Syria’s decision to enter direct negotiations with Israel came, among other things, from realization that within the near future, Syria will not be able to achieve strategic parity with Israel.

Ben-Yishai quoted official sources in Israel as saying that Assad was disappointed with the terms of the large arms deal he signed with the Soviet Union a few months ago.

The deal, valued at $2 billion to $3 billion, was to include advanced MiG-29 and Sukhoi-24 fighter jets, as well as tanks and state-of-the-art, surface-to-air SA-10 missiles, which are not yet in the hands of any other Middle East country.

But the financially strapped Soviet Union is asking for payment in cash, and Syria does not have the money. Only a small amount has arrived from the Gulf states, which promised Syria some $2 billion in recognition of its participation in the Western coalition that dislodged Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

Syria has already used much of what it did receive to pay for Scud-C missiles purchased from North Korea, Ben-Yishai reported.

It is possible the Soviet deal may not come to fruition at all or that only some of the items will be given to Syria for cash, he wrote.

The Soviet Union has already forgiven Syria for billion dollar debts from a prior weapons deal and apparently is not willing to continue financing the Syrian war machine when the Soviet Union itself is suffering financially.