Israel will in no way intervene in the crisis in Lebanon nor take any steps to try to save the regime of President Amin Gemayel. That was the consensus in government circles today following the resignation of Prime Minister Shafiq Wazzan and his Cabinet in Beirut yesterday and the renewed fighting there which has put Gemayel’s survivability in doubt.
Premier Yitzhak Shamir appeared to confirm that Israel is rapidly distancing itself from Beirut and wil concentrate from now on only on the security of its northern borders. Shamir was quoted in a Maariv interview published today as saying that there is no connection between events in and around Beirut and Israel’s border security.
“If we can reach an understanding with the Lebanese government, well and good. If not, Israel can find its own way to security arrangements in southern Lebanon,” Shamir told Maariv. He denied press reports that his Cabinet was “dismayed” by the latest developments in Beirut. The Cabinet heard a report on the subject yesterday but there was no debate, Shamir stressed.
A REVERSAL OF ISRAEL’S POLICY
His remarks pointed to a total reversal of Israel’s policy toward Lebanon when Ariel Sharon was Defense Minister in the government of former Premier Menachem Begin. That policy aimed at the establishment of a strong central government in Beirut friendly to Israel and bound to it by the May 17, 1983 withdrawal and security agreement, if not a formal peace treaty.
Israel exerted considerable political influence toward that end but has now apparently decided to steer clear of any involvement in Lebanon’s internal affairs.
Voice of Israel Radio said today that Israel is not consulting with the U.S. on the latest Lebanese crisis. The Reagan Administration has not asked Israel to use its influence in Lebanon to save the Gemayel regime, the radio report said.
According to Shamir, Israel will continue its activities in south Lebanon. “The aim of the war (in Lebanon) was to ensure our northern border. That aim has been achieved. We are now working out how to ensure that border for a long time to come,” Shamir told Maariv.
NO TOTAL TROOP WITHDRAWAL
It is understood here that a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon is out of the question. Were that to happen, the shelling of Israeli towns and villages in Galilee would be resumed within hours, according to the prevailing view here. The only workable solution therefore is to redeploy the Israel Defense Force in the south.
No plan has been announced. But according to one version, the IDF would cease to act as policemen in all of south Lebanon but would pull back to artillery range of the Israeli border. This would allow it to concentrate on control of the security zone under the protection of artillery. Israeli troops would no longer patrol urban centers such as Sidon which would mean a much smaller Israeli military presence in south Lebanon, minimizing the danger of casualties.
To carry out such a plan would require cooperation with the local Druze and Shiite Moslems, the latter comprising the bulk of the population in the south. Israel has been working for some time to cultivate those groups and reach an agreement whereby they would bear responsibility for local security.
In effect, such an arrangement would annul the May 17 agreement with Beirut and lead to friction with the Reagan Administration which, at the moment, seems determined to save Gemayel, sources here said today.
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