Jewish Vote to Be a Factor in Super Tuesday Contests

Jewish voters may make their first real impact on the primary campaigns for the Democratic and Republican nomination for the presidency on Tuesday, when “Super Tuesday” primaries and caucuses are held in 20 states.

This could be particularly true in three states: Florida, with an estimated 518,990 Jews or 4.7 percent of the total population; Maryland, with 203,340 Jews or 4.6 percent of the population; and Massachusetts, with 237,060 Jews or 4.7 percent of the population.

In all of the other states holding contests Tuesday, Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, except for Georgia, where they amount to 1 percent; Missouri, with 1.3 percent; Nevada, with 2 percent; Rhode Island, with 1.8 percent; and Virginia, with 1.1 percent.

Although even in the states where there is a sizeable Jewish community, Jews are still a small minority, the Jewish vote is nevertheless important, because Jews are usually concentrated in one or two areas of the state.

In Massachusetts, this means the Boston area; in Maryland, the majority of Jews live in the Baltimore area and Montgomery and Prince George’s counties, just outside Washington; and in Florida, they are concentrated in the three southeastern counties of Dade (Miami), Broward (Hollywood-Fort Lauderdale) and Palm Beach.

More important, studies over the years have shown that Jews are more likely than others to vote in primaries. That is why the Jewish vote will be key in determining the outcome of the New York primaries on April 19.

But the Jewish vote is expected to be decisive only in the Democratic primaries, since most Jews who register with a party are Democrats.

DUKAKIS HAS MOST SUPPORT

While all of the Democratic candidates, including Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, Sen. Albert Gore of Tennessee and even the Rev. Jesse Jackson have support in the Jewish community, observers here believe that the candidate who will do best on Super Tuesday is Gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts — and not just because his wife, Kitty, is Jewish.

Jews in Massachusetts, like most Democrats there, are expected to vote overwhelmingly for their governor.

In Florida, Dukakis also appears to be winning the support of Jews. Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois also has gained some following, but he is counted out of the race for all practical purposes.

Simon is not campaigning in the Super Tuesday states, but is concentrating on his home state, which has a primary on March 15. He is expected to get strong support from the Jewish community.

In Maryland, newspaper reports are predicting a Dukakis victory, although here again there is much sentiment in the Jewish community for Simon, particularly in the Washington suburbs.

On the Republican side, Rep. Jack Kemp of New York is considered to be the favorite among Jewish voters, although most experts believe he will be out of the race after Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the two Republican front runners, Vice President George Bush and Senate Minority Leader Robert Dole of Kansas, appear to be evenly divided in the Jewish community, at least when it comes to raising money. Each has raised about $2 million in the Jewish community, according to one source.

Although all of the candidates, including Jackson, have voiced support of Israel, they have in the main avoided the Middle East in their campaigns up to now, except when directly asked about the issue.

But Israel and other issues of particular Jewish concern are expected to be stressed after Super Tuesday, when the candidates approach the New York primary on April 19, the Pennsylvania primary on April 26 and the primaries in California and New Jersey on June 7.

REPUBLICAN INROADS

While Jewish voters will be participating overwhelmingly in the Democratic primaries, this does not mean that Jews will necessarily support the Democratic candidate in November. Republicans have been making inroads in the Jewish community since 1976, although not as deeply as Jewish Republicans have hoped.

Much may depend on what happens with the two ministers in the race: Jackson on the Democratic side and the Rev. Pat Robertson, who is seeking the Republican nomination.

While Jackson has toned down his rhetoric since 1984 and has sought to reach out to the Jewish community, many Jews still look at him warily.

Jackson has done well in recent primaries in northern states and is expected to pick up a large number of delegates in the South on Tuesday. He certainly will have influence at the Democratic National Convention in Atlanta in July, although probably mostly on domestic issues.

Robertson also is expected to do well in the South, although this is less certain. But he is expected to be a factor in the Republican National Convention in New Orleans in August, especially in pressing for inclusion in the Republican platform of the positions of the Christian right on such issues as abortion and prayer in the schools.

No one expects either Jackson or Robertson to be candidates of their parties. But how much influence either is seen to have on the candidate who is chosen may decide where the Jewish vote goes in November.