With a new national census beginning today in the Soviet Union, it is believed that the result could show a Jewish population of not more than 1.9 millions, compared with 2.1 million in 1970.
This is the result of the emigration of 180,000 Jews since the last census in 1970, in addition to the decline shown in previous decodes. However, the figure will depend mainly on whether there will be a large change in national identification in census declarations. This is the conclusion of an analysis by Dr. L. Hirszowicz of the Institute of Jewish Affairs.
The numbers of Jews in the five preceding Russian censuses were as follows: 1897-five million (according to language) and 5.2 million according to religion; 1926-2.7 million, 1939-3 million, 1959-2.26 million, and 1970-2.1 million.
Since the 1917 revolution, all the censuses have omitted the religion question and recognized Jews as a nationality. Between 1959 and 1970, the number of Jews dropped by 117,000, through natural causes and perhaps through their changing their national identity. The loss between 1970 and 1979 must be much greater — about 270,000, if one adds these processes to the roughly 180,000 emigants.
Another clue to the real number of Jews will be in the answers concerning a person’s national language where it differs from his first language. A further decline in the number of Yiddish speakers may be expected, but, Hirszowicz believes, the decline may be overstated due to the way the question is formulated.
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