Shamir Doubtful on Peace Progress As U.S. and Soviet Visits Approach

As Israel prepared for back-to-back visits this weekend by Soviet Foreign Minister Alexander Bessmertnykh and U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir expressed doubts about the chances of a breakthrough in the Middle East peace process.

Shamir spoke pessimistically Tuesday about “waning signs of an Arab readiness to change their attitudes” toward Israel, which he attributed in large measure to the less-than-conclusive defeat of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Hussein’s ability to quickly regain strength at home and even abroad has made the Arab leaders think twice about making bold changes in their stance toward Israel, Shamir said.

He warned that hopes that the allied victory in the Persian Gulf War would produce an atmosphere conducive to Arab-Israeli peacemaking are “quickly fading.”

Shamir expressed these views to the visiting foreign minister of Holland, Hans van den Brock. But the Dutch diplomat, who will assume the rotating chairmanship of the European Community’s Council of Ministers on July 1, said he saw encouraging developments in the Arab world.

Shamir’s downbeat assessment was seen by some observers to be an attempt to lower expectations as the United States and Soviet Union embark on their first joint peace initiative in the region.

His remarks were also seen as an oblique criticism of Washington’s handling of Iraq and the Arab world in the wake of its military victory.

And they were read as a message to Syria and Israel’s moderate Arab neighbors, Jordan and Egypt, which seem to be re-embracing the recently discredited Palestine Liberation Organization.

CONFLICTING DOMESTIC PRESSURES

Shamir faces problems on the domestic political front. Relations between the government and the opposition factions have worsened dramatically, and there is dissension within the governing coalition.

Suspicion and tension is mounting between the parties of the far right and circles within Likud and its religious coalition partners, whom the right perceives to be too ready to offer concessions.

Housing Minister Ariel Sharon, the outspoken Likud hard-liner, and the right-wing Tehiya, Tsomet and Moledet parties have served notice on Shamir that they will not agree to an international peace conference or any forum that extends beyond a formal opening ceremony.

They reject any concessions to the Palestinians and oppose even the limited autonomy arrangement that is basic to Shamir’s plan.

Countering pressure from the right is the small, strictly Orthodox Degel HaTorah party, whose two-member Knesset delegation reminded Shamir this week that it is firmly committed to the peace process and will not tolerate Israeli intransigence.

Invective is heating up the Knesset. Yossi Sarid of the dovish Citizens Rights Movement called Sharon a “fascist Jew” in the course of debate Monday about relations with the United States.

Sharon, for his part, denounced the left-wing opposition as “stool pigeons” for exposing accelerated settlement activity in the administered territories.

The housing minister took a tour Tuesday of new Jewish housing projects in and around Jerusalem, accompanied by right-wing Knesset members of the Eretz Yisrael (Land of Israel) Front.

Meanwhile, it is assumed here that Baker and Bessmertnykh will not plunge uncoordinated into the parlous thickets of Middle East diplomacy and certainly not in competition with each other.

The likelihood is that Baker, who will be making his fourth tour of the region since March, has persuaded the Soviets to join him in a final all-out push for the regional peace conference he has been promoting but which has been blocked by disagreements over procedural details.

According to some Israeli sources, the two statesmen plan to issue a joint challenge to their respective friends and allies in the region, daring them not to attend.

Baker, who is due here early next week, and Bessmertnykh, who arrives Friday, will meet in Cairo on Sunday to discuss peace prospects, following the Soviet minister’s visit to Israel.

The itineraries of both men include Egypt, Jordan and Syria.