The crisis in south Lebanon will be one of the major issues discussed at Premier Menachem Begin’s meeting with President Carter in Washington next week, political analysts here said today.
They said that Israel believes that only the U.S. can serve as an intermediary between the parties concerned to reach an arrangement that will permanently eliminate the terrorist presence from south Lebanon. Until such an arrangement is made, Israel has said that its forces will remain in south Lebanon where they now occupy a security belt 100 kilometers long by 10 kilometers deep.
High level sources here denied an American report that Carter has asked Begin to postpone his Washington visit until there is no longer a significant Israeli presence in south Lebanon. The sources said that Begin and Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan will go to the U.S. as planned for their meetings March 21-22 with the President. Defense Minister Ezer Weizman will not return to Washington.
LONG-TERM AFFECTS ON NEGOTIATIONS
The long-term affects of the Lebanese crisis on Middle East peace negotiations remained unclear today. The Egyptians have indicated they want to continue the talks which have been stalled for two months. But observers here think it is unlikely that they will be resumed before a settlement is reached in south Lebanon.
Israel is expected to demand that no PLO people be permitted to cross the Litani River into the area now held by the Israeli army. This would, in effect, impose the “Red Line” restriction that has applied to Syrian forces in Lebanon to the Palestinians. Authoritative political sources said there need not be a written document but a silent understanding between the parties.
(President Anwar Sadat, who several days ago condemned the terrorist violence in Israel last Saturday as “sad and tragic,” today condemned Israel’s military operation in Lebanon. At the same time, according to Cairo radio, Sadat said he would continue with efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict through peaceful means. The radio quoted the President as saying: “Israel must know that the occupation of others’ land will not give security to Israel. The days of imposing conditions by force are over. If Israel has the military strength, we, too, have military strength.”)
Begin said at a press conference yesterday that all “relevant factors”–excluding the PLO–should be consulted in reaching an agreement on south Lebanon and reaffirmed Israel’s intention to hold the area until it had assurances that south Lebanon would no longer serve as a terrorist base. Begin agreed that other “parties concerned” included the Lebanese government, Syria and other Arab states.
ROLE OF SYRIA
The U.S. is expected to have difficulty convincing the Syrians to agree to the arrangement Israel wants which would limit the Palestinian military presence to the northern regions of Lebanon or to bases in Syria. However, Syria’s failure to assist the Palestinians against the Israeli attack yesterday signaled that there might be same favorable response from Damascus.
The Syrians clearly do not want to become involved in a military confrontation with Israel. So far they have also shown no interest in joining the Israeli-Egyptian peace process and efforts to change the mind of President Hafez Assad have failed.
Meanwhile, political analysts here said today that Begin and Dayan postponed their trip to Washington, originally to have taken place this week, after it was decided to launch a retaliatory strike into Lebanon rather than as a direct result of last Saturday’s terrorist assault on Israeli civilians.
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