U.S. Marine Withd Rawal Spurs Israeli Plans to Further Reduce IDF Presence in South Lebanon

President Reagan’s decision to pull the U.S. marines out of Beirut in a phased withdrawal seems to have spurred Israeli plans to further reduce the presence of the Israel Defense Force in south Lebanon.

Although Premier Yitzhak Shamir has said repeatedly that it was too early to consider an IDF redeployment in Lebanon, the feeling has grown in political and military circles that an Israeli pullback from the present lines is imminent.

It was apparent at yesterday’s special Cabinet session that most ministers would favor a gradual thinning out of the IDF in south Lebanon. Details of such a plan are expected to be discussed at the Cabinet’s regular weekly meeting this Sunday.

Military sources said today that with the marines being withdrawn from Beirut, Israel no longer has any commitment to the U.S. in Lebanon and can begin looking to its own interests and reducing the risk of casualties to Israeli soldiers.

ACCORD WITH GEMAYEL IS INSUFFICIENT FOR SECURITY

The prevailing mood here is that security arrangements in the south can no longer rely on an agreement with the government of President Amin Gemayel in Beirut which, since the resignation of Prime Minister Shafiq Wazzan and his Cabinet, has virtually ceased to exist as a viable entity.

The consensus in Israel is that even if Gemayel remains in office, he would become a puppet in the hands of Syrian-controlled forces in Lebanon and probably would abrogate his May 1Z, 1983 withdrawal and security agreement with Israel, as the Syrians have demanded.

SEVERAL OPTIONS BEING CONSIDERED

Given the new situation, the government is said to be considering several options. One calls for an IDF withdrawal southward along the Lebanese coast, ending the occupation of heavily populated urban centers such as Sidon where the risk of casualties is highest because of the hostility of the local residents.

Once the withdrawal is accomplished, the Israelis believe the situation in the rest of south Lebanon could be stabilized with the help of the late Col. Saad Haddad’s militia. The IDF would be deployed im a security zone just north of the Israeli border, a region where the population is less hostile toward Israel.

Another option is the formation of a Druze canton north of the Awali River which could serve as a buffer zone protecting the IDF from hostile elements. The Druze have proven reliable in preventing the infiltration of terrorists from the Shouf mountains into the Israel-occupied zone. In any event, the IDF would reserve the option to act against terrorist centers north of any new line that may be established.