The success of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and the Syrian-backed Shi’ite Amal movement in Lebanese elections this week bodes poorly for the Israeli presence in southern Lebanon.
The situation in the region has been shaky, reflecting the old internecine fights that characterized much of Lebanon until Syrian control became a way of life for most of the country.
Whereas the rest of Lebanon is relatively calm, because of Syrian domination over local militias, southern Lebanon is still torn by tensions between Israel and its Christian loyalists and supporters of the Shi’ite Moslem militias.
Questions about where southern Lebanon is headed were being asked intensely this week amid speculation over an eventual peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Residents of southern Lebanon have no doubt that such an agreement would include their region.
Yosef Hadass, head of the Israeli team negotiating with Lebanon, has stated at the peace talks in Washington that Israel recognizes the international boundaries between the two countries and that, in principle, it is ready to withdraw once necessary security arrangements have been completed.
For local residents, this signaled a fait accompli, leaving only the question of the timing of a withdrawal to be answered.
It is surprising how little attention was devoted in Israel to the Lebanese elections and their possible effect on Israel.
The deteriorating security situation in the region was the reason for Israel’s most controversial war – the one in Lebanon begun 10 years ago. And the ensuing establishment of Israel’s security zone in the south was a reflection of common interests between Israel and the local inhabitants at the time.
Such interests still exist, but they are much weaker than in the past. Gen. Antoine Lahad, commander of the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army, failed to persuade residents to join the widespread Christian boycott of the elections.
Fear of the Shi’ite militants has become stronger than fear of the Israelis and their supporters – stronger even than the economic benefits gained by Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon.
The elections this week have brought that region closer to the rest of the country; its inhabitants are looking to Beirut for their future.
And Israelis are looking up to the Golan. The old saying that the fate of southern Lebanon will be determined in Damascus rather than Beirut seemed truer this week than ever.
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