Major U.S. Business Advisory Agency Predicts ‘warmest’ U.s.-israel Relations After Tempers Cool

The Holt Executive Advisory, a major investment information service for businessmen, has told its readers not to be surprised if, “when tempers cool,” the relationship between the United States and Israel “becomes the warmest in years.”

The newsletter, published twice a month in Westport, Conn., in its latest issue to “Dear Executive” discusses the current low in the U.S.-Israel relationship stemming from “the bitter exchange of words” between Premier Menachem Begin of Israel and Reagan Administration officials, a reference to Begin’s sharp attack of the Administration following its suspension of the strategic cooperation agreement with Israel.

The newsletter points out that the exchange of words did not “stem entirely” from Israel’s extension

of its law to the Golan Heights and the Reagan Administration’s hostile reaction to it, including a U.S. vote for a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning that action.

SEES BEGIN’S ‘BLOW-UP’ AS JUSTIFIED

Asserting that from the Israeli point of view, “Begin’s blow-up was surely justified,” the newsletter says that since its 1967 Six-Day War victory, Israel’s superior military position has been “substantially eroded,” partly because the United States has “demanded” that Israel practice “restraint.”

The newsletter refers to Syrian missiles in Lebanon, Arab war chests “generously filled by both the Soviets and OPEC members,” and the fact that the White House, “the friend” Israel has long counted on, went all out to push the sale of AWACS planes to Saudi Arabia.

“Little wonder, then, that Jerusalem now feels both abandoned and insecure,” the newsletter adds. “It sees an urgent need to stop any further erosion of its position. The Golan Heights move was made to strengthen its future bargaining power.”

Declaring that the U.S. too, has had “its share of frustrations,” the newsletter states the Reagan Administration’s Mideast defense strategy involves joining forces with “moderate Arabs” and with Israel. Currently the Reagan Administration is “trying hard” to win Saudi support for that strategy, in “a highly delicate diplomatic mission” not helped by “unilateral moves” by Israel.

U.S. CAN’T REALLY BREAK WITH ISRAEL

Nevertheless, according to the newsletter, “the fact is, America won’t and can’t really break with Israel” because the U.S. wants “a strong defense belt against Soviet aggression in the Mideast” and cannot count on Riyadh “to serve as the center of that belt.” While Egypt is considered relatively more dependable than Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s new leaders, with President Anwar Sadat gone, resist going “all the way” to support U.S. strategy, the newsletter noted.

“Thus, Israel is the only country able and willing to cooperate without stint,” the newsletter declared. “New air bases in the Negev will be open to the American forces. So will be the port of Haifa, a first-class anchorage for the Sixth Fleet. These are the realities of the strategic cooperation memorandum.”

Israel’s dependence on the U.S. “is no longer a one-way street,” the newletter states. As U.S. policy shifts toward the Third World and Asia, “the value of local bases and reliable troops is rising sharply.” Against that background the recent “lovers quarrel” may be “a good thing,” according to the newsletter.” Both sides have had a chance to speak their minds. Don’t be surprised that, when tempers cool, the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem becomes the warmest in years.”