I noted in an earlier post Barry Rubin’s analysis of what the election of Muhammad Ghaneim, an old-line hard-liner, to Fatah’s leadership suggests about the direction of the mainstream Palestinian party and how it will guide negotiations with Israel.
Ori Nir, the spokesman for Americans for Peace Now — and, not inconsequentially, one of the most respected analysts of Palestinian affairs during his years at Ha’aretz and the Forward — has a different take.
Here’s what Ori wrote to me:
Barry Rubin’s analysis is one way of interpreting Ghaneim’s election. Here’s another: Mahmoud Abbas has for years been confronting the opposition within Fatah, spearheaded by Farouk Kaddumi and supported by old-guard, hard-line Fatah veterans such as Ghaneim.
Months ago, Abbas saw the victory of the younger leadership from inside the West Bank coming, once Fatah’s General Assembly convenes, as happened this week.
Abbas was concerned that such a landslide victory for Fatah’s "intifada generation" might cause a rift within the party, because supporters of the old-guard leadership in the diaspora might feel disenfranchised. He urged Ghaneim to return to the West Bank and join Fatah’s leadership inside in return for a senior position within Fatah. Ghaneim agreed, and by doing so implicitly committed to Fatah’s pragmatic platform of peace negotiations with Israel toward a two-state settlement. Abbas lobbied for him within Fatah and indeed secured Ghaneim’s election as the leading member of Fatah’s top governing body.
Ghaneim’s victory, therefore, apparently represents a major achievement for Abbas and seems to bode well for a future constructive dialogue with Fatah and the PLO toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
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