David Harris: Immigration was the surprise answer

I just talked to AJC director David Harris about the group’s "bad news for Obama and the Democrats" poll of the Jews, covered in today’s first Political Points, below.

His takeaway is that it’s the uncertainty, stupid — more on that in a minute — but he confessed that the biggest shocker was the majority of Jewish voters who backed Arizona’s immigration law, which encourages police to check immigration credentials when looking into other matters, and which has already sparked an exodus of undocumented workers from the state.

Here’s how the question was phrased:

A new law in Arizona gives police the power to ask people they’ve stopped to verify their residency status. Supporters say this will help crack down on illegal immigration. Opponents say it could violate civil rights and lead to racial profiling. On balance, do you support or oppose this law?

The result was a majority in favor of the law, albeit one barely outside the 3-point margin of error: 52-46.

"That one elicited the most surprise here," Harris told me. "You form a notion in your mind of what you think the likely response is to each question and then you check it against the reality — we did not expect to see majority support for the Arizona law."

More broadly, he said the trend downwards among Jews for Obama pointed to "where are we?" anxieties.

"To me the common denominator pretty much across the board is a sense of growing anxiety and apprehension," he said, noting that bad economic ratings in March had become worse and that decent foreign policy ratings in March had become bad. "There’s a sense that things here and abroad are not necessarily getting better."

He also nodded to the spike in support for Republicans in Congress — from the low 20s in previous elections to 33 percent in this poll. "It’s not a wholesale transfer from one party to the other," was the best he could offer the Democrats.