Futurist’s Predictions


Gary Rosenblatt’s very helpful review of the new edition of “2048” by David Passig raises more than a few concerns (“Futurists Warning To Israel: Don’t Overreach,” May 17).

The first one that comes to mind is Passig’s apparent neglect of natural phenomena, especially climate change, which, over the next 50 years, will surely be a critical factor. More specifically, it appears that he does not consider the lowering of water levels, droughts, flooding, soil depletion, and food shortages — especially affecting the burgeoning young populations in key areas of the Middle East (e.g. Egypt and Syria), and South Central Asia. Also the pandemics that are predicted to occur in these areas and elsewhere, partly due to the expected migrations of pathogens and humans as a result of both warming and food shortages, respectively.

On energy, the fact that Iran is still among the world leaders in natural gas reserves, though ostensibly fumbling with respect to renewable sources of energy, is surely an important additional consideration.

I would guess that Passig would agree that all such phenomena would be decisive in determining the trajectories of most nations, including that of Israel.

The implication that the major struggle will be between Russia and the United States and not China and the United States, is the first of its type I’ve heard.

On Israel’s lack of humility, I wonder which government is the standard of comparison? Turkey? Syria? Saudi Arabia?  Venezuela? China? Iran?

San Juan, Puerto Rico