Behind the Headlines Expectations and Realities

The general lack of celebration over Israel’s withdrawal from the Sinai Sunday, which marked the last step in the implementation of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, was evidence that the high expectations of three years ago were still far from realization.

Israel’s other Arab neighbors had not joined the peace process and Israel and Egypt are still deadlocked over the next stage of the Camp David accords–autonomy for the Palestinian Arabs on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Adding to this gloom is the concern by Israel’s friends in the United States that the government of Premier Menachem Begin is not being given enough credit for what it has given up in the pursuit of peace. The focus for the last several months has been on whether Israel would return the Sinai as scheduled, a commitment Begin maintained throughout he would keep.

Forgotten in all this was that for peace Israel gave up the Sinai oil fields, the source of 80 percent of its oil requirements. Supporters of Israel have been asking this week if anyone knew of any other country that had willingly given up its oil source in recent years.

TANGIBLES AND INTANGIBLES

Nor has much mention been made of Israel’s abandonment of two modern air bases in the Sinai or that, by leaving the Sinai, Israel gave up defensive depth which could cost the Jewish State greatly in lives if Egypt ever abandoned the peace treaty.

For these tangible moves, Israel gets the intangible asset of peace with Egypt, a peace which will be tested in the coming months as President Hasni Mubarak seeks to improve Egypt’s relations with its fellow Arab states. Mubarak has pledged to keep his commitments to Israel, but will the U.S. retaliate if he doesn’t?

At the same time, the peace established by Begin and the late President Anwar Sadat, with the assistance of former President Carter, is still a major achievement which is continuously belittled by some segments of the media and even some people in the U.S. government.

These are the same people who call for pressure on Israel to withdraw from the West Bank and Gaza instead of demanding that the U.S. put pressure on its “moderate” Arab friends to join the Camp David process, a process which both Carter and President Reagan stress as the only means of achieving peace in the Middle East.

What Israel’s friends would like to see was put succinctly at a rally here last week by Howard Squadron, chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. “Give Israel credit for what it does do and stop blaming Israel for what it does not do.” Squadron demanded.

THE ADMINISTRATION’S RESPONSES

But the Administration’s first response may be to reward the Arab countries with arms sales as it did last year when it agreed to sell AWACS and other military equipment to Saudi Arabia. Despite the Administration’s denials that it has decided whether or not to sell Jordan the F-16 jets and Hawk mobile missiles it wants, there is a strong belief here that some type of arms sale to Jordan will be recommended, probably after the November general elections.

There is also a belief in Washington that the Administration feels now is the time to wean Syria and Iraq away from the Soviet camp. The first steps in this move was the removal of Iraq from the list of countries which support terrorism and the decision to allow the sale of civilian planes to Syria and South Yemen even though they are still on the terrorism list. In addition the Administration is expected to sell six cargo planes to Iraq, a sale that will have strong opposition in Congress.

Another move expected now is the revival of the so-called “peace plan” proposed by Crown Prince Fahd of Saudi Arabia as an alternative to the Camp David process. The Administration, despite its avowed commitment to the Camp David process, is expected to give the Saudis encouragement as they did last November.

THE CHIEF QUESTION

But the chief question now revolves around the autonomy talks. The Reagan Administration has pledged to “move swiftly” in helping Israel and Egypt agree on a plan to provide autonomy for the Palestinians on the West Bank and Gaza. Secretary of State Alexander Haig has been occupied with the Falklands crisis but his special assistant for the autonomy talks, Richard Fairbanks, has been familiarizing himself with the issues and has reportedly been working on a set of ideas to offer Israel and Egypt.

Begin said in a NBC-TV interview last Sunday that if Israel finds the U.S. proposals “good and proper we shall then accept them. If we do not find them good and proper we will reject them.”

The basic question is whether the U.S. will use undue pressure in an attempt to force Israel to accept unpalatable proposals. Although there are still many differences between Israel and Egypt, including Egypt’s refusal to hold some sessions of the negotiations in Jerusalem, there are two main differences that have to be breached.

Israel wants the self-governing administrative council which will provide autonomy to have only administrative functions and be limited to 14 members, Egypt, which envisions autonomy as the first step to a Palestinian state, wants it to have legislative and juridical powers and to have at least 30 members.

ANOTHER MAJOR DISPUTE

The other major dispute is over whether the residents of East Jerusalem should vote for the self-governing authority. Egypt demands that they be allowed to do so; Israel, which fears that this would be a challenge to its sovereignty over all of Jerusalem, does not want to allow the Arabs there to vote.

All this means that the months and years ahead in the Middle East will continue to be full of tension. It is too often forgotten that even if autonomy is agreed upon, it is not the end of the story. The Camp David agreements provide for the other Arab nations and the Palestinians to join the process. But so far they have refused.

Autonomy itself is only an interim process. For after five years the final status of the West Bank and Gaza will be decided. Negotiations for this, under the Camp David agreements, must start within three years of the establishment of the self-governing authority.

The success of this process and perhaps the future of the region and the world depends on how the U.S. acts on these issues. The Reagan Administration has pledged to continue as a “full partner” with Israel and Egypt, but to do so it must pay closer attention to the effort than it has up to now.