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Special Analysis the Ismailia Summit

December 27, 1977
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The statement read this morning in Ismailia by President Anwar Sadat indicated that Israel and Egypt have actually reached a broad understanding of the future of the Sinai peninsula. However, the differences on the future of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip remain. The main subject of mutual concern to the two countries, therefore–the nature of the future border–is no longer a major stumbling block. Both leaders agreed that there was considerable progress on this subject.

Thus, the main gap exists on a subject in which Egypt has no direct geographical interest–the West Bank. In other words, Egypt is not yet ready to forego its role as defender of the Palestinians, although it may change its mind in the coming months. In this framework, the function of the two committees which Begin and Sadat decided to establish can be seen more clearly.

The military committee, to convene in Cairo, will deal with the technicalities of withdrawal from Sinai and turn the broad understanding reached in Ismailia into a detailed agreement. The political committee, which will convene in Jerusalem, will have the more difficult task of finding an accepted formula for a settlement in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

TOO EARLY TO COMPROMISE

Former Foreign Minister Abba Eban said today: “The Ismailia conference was a success, in that one achieved the maximum that could have been achieved there.” Indeed, those who expected Begin to return from Ismailia with some kind of a written accord in his hand were expecting miracles. An issue as complex as the Palestinian problem cannot be solved within a 24-hour visit.

Moreover, even if the two parties were willing to compromise–and they actually said that this was the purpose of the two committees–both of them apparently felt that it was too early to compromise. Both of them also apparently agreed that it was time to slow down the momentum which they so proudly achieved.

Meir Amit, Democratic Movement for Change (DMC) Knesset Member, said today in reaction to the Ismailia summit: “It seems they have realized that the fast rate of events was no longer mandatory.” Begin himself said today at a press conference upon his return to Israel: “Give us a chance.”

Begin needed the time because he is not ready to make further compromises, and he is certainly not ready to convince the hardliners such as Gush Emunim that further concessions are justifiable, not that the Gush Emunim presents any political threat to Begin. But Begin, until now the main spokesman for Greater Israel, wants to postpone an all-out clash with the advocates of Greater Israel and hopes to convince even the smaller groups to support him.

Even the moderate chairman of the Labor Party Shimon Peres, albeit congratulating Begin on the bold decisions made in connection with the peace plan, said Israel offered too much for an opening shot. Analysts noted that Begin could have come back from Ismailia after making further concessions and still win an overwhelming support in the Knesset.

SIGNAL TO ARAB WORLD

Sadat was much more interested in postponing the hour of decision. By sticking to his old position of firm support in creation of a Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Sadat was actually signalling the Arab world that it was not too late to join the peace talks. Sadat, so far, has not given anything away that could be interpreted as betraying Arab solidarity.

Once an understanding exists on Sinai, the subject of direct mutual interest, discussions can start on the issue of the other occupied territories.

It is perhaps no mere coincidence that before the two committees convene in Cairo and Jerusalem, an important visitor will come to the Mideast–President Carter. He has already indicated his interest in seeing both President Hafez Assad of Syria and Jordan’s King Hussein. Carter’s efforts will probably be but the first in a renewed attempt to convince those two leaders to join the conference table.

Sadat is not yet ready for a separate agreement with Israel. But the talks in Ismailia definitely paved the road for such an agreement when Sadat feels he can reach no better alternative.

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