Consequences of Faisal’s Assassination

Israeli leaders indicated today that it was too early to assess the repercussions of King Faisal’s assassination in Riyadh yesterday on future developments in the Middle East. But they indicated that from Israel’s point of view, Faisal’s successor, King Khalid, could be no more extreme than the late monarch. Premier Yitzhak Rabin remarked today that political assassination was not an infrequent occurrance in the Middle East and was just one more problem Israel had to contend with in trying to reach a settlement with its Arab neighbors.

King Faisal’s death is certainly a factor that weighs on Israel when it considers diplomatic negotiations and accords, officials here said. They noted there might be room for hope that the new situation in Saudi Arabia would moderate that country’s savage vehemence in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Experts on Arab affairs here believe that King Khalid is not the true power center in Saudi Arabia and that his reign could be viewed as a transition period, given the new King’s poor health and his age–64. Some sources expressed the view that a power struggle will develop between Khalid and his newly appointed heir-apparent, Crown Prince Fahid.

Fahid is considered one of the most powerful men in Riyadh, these experts say. For years his supporters have held central positions in the power structure there, and he himself has had an important say on foreign policy issues. Both Khalid and Fahid–like most of the Saudian royal house–are considered pro-Western and anti-Soviet. But neither are believed to be so single-minded nor so religiously extreme as the late Faisal was.

DIMINUTION OF U.S. INFLUENCE SEEN

Political observers point out, nevertheless, that Faisal’s basic friendship towards Washington was tried and true–and to that extent his death means a further diminution of U.S. influence in the region at a time when the U.S. had suffered a severe setback through the failure of Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger’s mission.

These observers add, though, that Faisal in the last week of his life had disappointed Kissinger for the second time in several months by failing to throw his vital weight and influence behind the Secretary’s “shuttle” effort. Kissinger flew to Riyadh last Wednesday to enlist Faisal’s support and influence on President Anwar Sadat of Egypt at the crucial stage of the negotiations.

Kissinger’s earlier disappointment with Faisal and his misassessment of the Saudi monarch’s alms, occurred late last October at the Rabat Arab summit. The Americans–and consequently Israel too–had expected Faisal to line up behind Jordan’s King Hussein and prevent the PLO from ousting him from all pretensions to represent the Palestinian cause. But suddenly and unexpectedly Faisal reversed his long-standing enmity towards the terrorists and swung round behind the PLO.