NEW YORK (Aug. 26)
The first nuclear was will probably be fought between Israel and the Arab countries. This is one of the findings of a poll on nuclear war which was conducted by the magazine, “Next,” which started publishing earlier this year. The findings of the poll are reported in the October issue of the magazine.
According to the poll, which questioned 32 internationally recognized nuclear armament and military experts, “Israel will win (the first nuclear war) but it will be a Pyrrhic victory, because so many Israelis will die. “Findings of the poll and the October issue of Next were presented at a press conference here today at the United Nations Plaza Hotel.
The poll, conducted according to the Delphi method in which the experts answer similar questions at least twice to achieve maximum accuracy, also made the following points:
* The likelihood of a nuclear war over the next five years is statistically small, but growing, but from 1985 to 1989 the danger will increase.
*During the 1990s, nuclear war possibilities could double because more than twice as many nations will have the bomb than now have it.
*Within the next 10 years, it is expected that Israel, South Africa, Iraq, Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, Argentina and Brazil will have nuclear armaments.
*The first global nuclear war, between the U.S. and the Soviet Union is considered almost two-and-a-half times, less probable than a war between Israel and the Arabs. The results of the poll indicated that the Soviets will win.
*If there is a global nuclear war in the next decade, the cause would be the escalation of conflict between the allies of the superpowers in the Mideast, or an escalation of an acute international crisis.
*A regional nuclear war in the Mideast — or elsewhere — will result in the deaths of over five million people. One or more million people would suffer some form of debilitating radiation poisoning.