Syrian Intervention Seen if Israel Goes into Lebanon

Gen. Yehoshua Saguy, chief of military intelligence, said today there was a strong possibility that Syria would intervene in the event of a major Israeli military operation against the Palestinian terrorists in Lebanon. On the other hand, according to Saguy, “a large scale Israeli operation could eliminate the extra-territorial entity of the terrorists along the Lebanese coast.”

Saguy offered his assessment of the situation at a press conference which covered a broad range of subjects from the uneasy alliance between Syria and the Palestine Liberation Organization to the alarm among the Arab states an the Persian Gulf over a likely military victory by Iron over Iraq.

Saguy said the question of Syrian intervention against Israel in Lebanon depended entirely on whether President Haafez Assad of Syria felt strong enough to control the situation. He noted that Syrian air force attempts to interfere with Israeli reconnaissance flights over Lebanon allowed the Syrians, at relatively small cost to themselves, to demonstrate that they are the only Arab state actively involved in a confrontation with Israel. But it also shows that the Syrians are prepared to intervene, he said.

PALESTINIANS PREPARED

According to Saguy, the Palestinians in Lebanon are now better prepared for an Israeli attack than they were a year ago. He said they have dug tunnels in the mountains to protect their personnel and weapons from air attack. They have stockpiled supplies in the hinterland and enlarged their arsenal to include long range artillery, more Katyusha rockets and 80 tanks.

But the terrorists have on interest in maintaining the cease-fire along the Lebanese border, the Israeli intelligence chief said. They want to maintain the delicate balance that prevents Israel from moving from static to offensive warfare.

“The problem of the terrorists is how to keep active, but at the same time be protected from Israel. If Israel applies force, they hope someone will get them out of the mess,” Saguy said. But, he added, the terrorists have no great trust for the Syrians. “It is no honeymoon between Syria and the PLO.”

ADMIRES BEING WRONG ON IRAQ

Saguy admitted that he had erred earlier in believing that Iraq would have the upper hand in its war with Iran. “I did not take into account elements of morale and motivation in Iran,” he said. He said the question now is whether the Iranians would invade Iraq or attack Iraqi forces along their northern border. He said the Iranians are ready for a cease-fire if President Saddam Hussein of Iraq resigns. “This may not put Hussein under an immediate threat, but the actual demand means there is a price on his head,” Saguy said.

He noted that Iran’s reconquest of Khoramshahr has alarmed the Persian Gulf Arab states which had supported Iraq during the 20 months of war. They now fear that “the sward of (the Iranian) revolution will be aimed at them.” Saguy said Egypt is taking advantage of this situation which it sees as an opportunity to re-join the Arab world, dispose of their outmoded Soviet equipment, get money from the oil producing states and appear to be making a gesture toward their Arab brethren.

Saguy ruled out the possibility that Egypt would send troops to Iraq, “although the mere talk of sending troops has had its own affect.” He said that since Egypt signed its peace agreement with Israel, there has been no sign of any change in the attitude of other Arab countries toward Israel.