Anxiety Expressed That Nasser’s Death Shatters All Hope for Mideast Peace Settlement

The sudden death of President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt, has shattered hopes for a Middle East peace settlement, at least in the near future. It also vastly complicates the already complex Middle East situation in which growing Soviet influence and the rise of the Palestinian guerrillas loom as the most important factors. This was the consensus today of American diplomatic and intelligence officials and of Middle East experts in official and non-official capacities here. They concurred in the view that Nasser’s death will set off an internal power struggle in Egypt in which the contest will be waged between the military on one hand and civilian politicians on the other. No strong man was seen emerging in Cairo in the immediate future. Officials here believe that Egypt will be governed for the time being by a collective leadership, probably composed of War Minister Mohammed Fawzi, Minister of Interior Sharawi Gumal and the heads of the military services. Col. Nasser never groomed his subordinates for possible succession and constantly shifted men in key positions to avoid an accumulation of power by any individual. His hand-picked Vice President, Anwar Sadat, now the interim President of Egypt, is not regarded here as strong enough to step into Nasser’s shoes.

Washington’s diplomatic community was unanimous in its acknowledgment that President Nasser was the only Arab leader in a strong enough position to lead the Arab world toward peace with Israel. Egypt, though still the largest and strongest of the Arab states, may lose much of its influence as a result of Nasser’s death, diplomatic sources here said. They noted that the late Col. Nasser was a hero to millions of Arabs beyond his own country’s borders. His death was also seen as a blow to the Soviet position in the Mideast. Nasser was the spearhead of Soviet influence in the region and Kremlin leaders carefully cultivated him to the exclusion of other Arab leaders. Egypt is wholly dependent on the USSR for the equipment and training of its armed forces and Egypt’s air defense is said to be totally in Russian hands. But the question is how strong Russian influence will be on the Egyptian military now that Nasser is gone, observers here said. They noted that there has been friction between Egyptian military officers and their Russian advisers which only Nasser’s influence held in abeyance. They believe the Soviet Union will now do its utmost to assure Egypt of its continued military and political support. Such assurances are expected to be conveyed by Premier Alexei Kosygin when he comes to Cairo to attend Nasser’s funeral Thursday.

RUSSIANS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO POWER VACUUM; 90-DAY TRUCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

The Russians are also expected to try to exert a decisive influence on the selection of Egypt’s future leadership. There are pro-and anti-Soviet elements in the Egyptian hierarchy. Of the two men already mentioned as possible successors to Nasser, Former Vice President Zakaria Mohieddin is said to have pro-Western leanings and Air Marshall Ali Sabry, long a Nasser intimate, has a pro-Soviet reputation. Also mentioned as a possibility is Mohammed Heikal, Minister of Information and editor of the Cairo daily Al Ahram, who was one of Nasser’s closest confidants. But the view emerged here that Egypt’s future strong man may be someone who is now as obscure as Col. Nasser himself was before he master-minded the 1952 coup that ousted the late King Farouk. Authorities on Egypt said a new leader could rise from one of the three major political forces in Egypt. These are the military, the Arab Socialist Union which Nasser established as the country’s only political party and the Moslem Brotherhood. The latter is a fanatical religious group which Nasser forced underground. It is an advocate of holy wars and a return to the ways of the Koran, eschewing all the modern embellishments of statehood. The Arab Socialist Union is said to have little influence without Nasser’s personal leadership.

According to most experts, the Egyptian military establishment seems the most likely to produce the country’s future leadership, either in the form of a junta or a single strong man. Observers here believe that for the time being Egypt will continue to observe the 90-day Suez cease-fire with Israel. They predict a period of relative calm on the war front while Egypt sorts out its internal affairs. An unpredictable factor is the militant Palestinian guerrilla movement whose extremist elements were held in check by Nasser’s personal influence and prestige. The late President had served as a mediator in savage disputes between the guerrillas and the Lebanese government earlier this year and most recently in the Jordanian civil war. Nasser’s death occurred only a day after he successfully brought King Hussein of Jordan and guerrilla chief Yassir Arafat together in Cairo to sign a pact ending the bloodshed. Without Nasser’s support, Hussein’s position appeared more precarious than ever. Some observers here thought the guerrillas would seize the vacuum in Egypt as an opportunity to destroy what remains of U.S. Secretary of State William P. Rogers’ Mideast peace initiative.