Background Report a Reprise of Old Refrains

As the Administration gropes for evidence of movement in the Mideast peace process that would bolster its case for selling new arms to Jordan, the current sequence of visits here by the Egyptian and Jordanian heads of state seem to underscore how little has changed since they were in Washington last spring.

In fact, the appearance here of Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Hussein — both of whom arrived in the country last week, primarily to address the United Nations General Assembly but also to meet with President Reagan and other Administration officials in Washington — has looked so far like reruns of an old serial with some minor splicing here and there.

Mubarak met with Reagan last week where, according to a State Department briefer, he tried, as he did during his visit last March, to persuade the Administration to take the initiative in moving the peace process ahead.

Although no statements were made by the two Presidents following the White House meeting — those are generally reserved for official state visits — it appeared that Mubarak had tried, as he did the last time, to persuade the U.S. to meet with a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation even if it includes delegates closely associated with the PLO.

Since Mubarak’s last visit here, the Administration has agreed to consider meeting with such a delegation if it does not include any PLO representatives and if there is a clear indication that the talks would lead to direct negotiations between Jordan and Israel.

Assistant Secretary of State Richard Murphy went to the Middle East last summer in an attempt to reach agreement on the composition of a delegation acceptable to the United States. Washington has assured Israel it will not meet with PLO representatives until the organization recognizes the existence of Israel and renounces terrorism.

But the trip failed to produce any agreement, and Mubarak appeared to have returned to the White House last week re-reciting his March appeal, and to have left with nothing more to show for it. Still stinging from the domestic criticism that followed its attempt to pass off the March visit as a smashing success, the Egyptian government is doubly wary of displaying this month’s meetings as having scored any major accomplishments for Mubarak in the peace process. Accordingly, a commentary on the Egyptian state-controlled radio last Wednesday warned:

“Anyone who believes that any meeting between Mubarak and Reagan will produce immediate results or, in other words, will completely change Washington’s stand toward the PLO, is mistaken. A change of stand requires an exhaustive study of all aspects of the problems.” The commentary stressed that “there should be no hasty judgement about the result of the Mubarak-Reagan meeting.”

LAMENTS MISSED CHANCES FOR PEACE

The continued lack of movement was also underscored in a speech here last week by Egyptian Foreign Minister Ismat Abdel Meguid, who lamented that “promising chances for peace continue to be missed.”

“Imposing limited concepts and insistence of guaranteeing the outcomes of the preliminary dialogue before it starts would create by itself an unnecessary obstacle which may hamper our efforts in the search for a peaceful settlement,” Meguid warned in a keynote address to the annual conference of the Middle East Institute.

The Egyptian Embassy’s Deputy Chief of Mission, Raouf Ghoneim, delivered the speech because the Foreign Minister had been detained in New York. Meguid, in his prepared keynote address, called it “unfair” in the 1980’s “to strictly adhere to formulas of the 1970’s — like that of not recognizing or negotiating with the PLO.”

PEACE PROGRESS HINGES ON HUSSEIN

Mubarak himself, in his General Assembly address on Wednesday, hardly touched on the peace process, focussing instead on economic development issues.

In any case, it is Hussein on whom progress in the peace process is hinging now, and the Reagan Administration was undoubtedly hoping for a tangible sign of some movement on his part that would both enable the U.S. to meet with the joint delegation and justify the proposed sale of new arms to Jordan.

The Administration gave Congress informal notification on Friday of its intention to provide the Jordanians with a $1.55 to $1.9 billion arms package that includes 40 F20s or F16 fighter jets; 12 mobile improved Hawks surface-to-air missile batteries and equipment to convert 14 batteries into mobile units; 72 Stinger shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and 36 reloads; 300 AIM-9P4 infrared air-to-air missiles; and 32 Bradley fighting vehicles.

A provision in the recently passed foreign aid bill makes new arms sales to Jordan contingent on the King’s public commitment to recognize Israel and negotiate with it “promptly and directly.”

The Administration has argued that Hussein has already met these conditions, but legislators have made it clear that the Jordanian monarch will need to take a bold move if a battle with Congress is to be avoided.

Consequently, while the Administration may be quick to seize Hussein’s address to the UN General Assembly last Friday as new evidence that Jordan has met the demands of Congress, the King’s more explicit hints of Jordan’s willingness to negotiate directly with Israel appear unlikely to satisfy a majority of legislators.

Using the language of the foreign aid act amendment, Hussein said in his address: “We are prepared to negotiate under appropriate auspices with the government of Israel, promptly and directly, under the basic tenets of Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338.”

However, Hussein insisted, as he did in his visit here last May, that “appropriate auspices” should be an international conference. Hussein will meet with Reagan in Washington on Monday, and on Tuesday with members of Congress.