Background Report Date for Israeli Elections is Subject of Intense Bargaining Between the Various Pa

The Labor Alignment’s decisive victory for its early elections bill in the Knesset last Thursday night has set the stage for intense bargaining between the various parties over just how soon the elections will be held. Labor hopes the issue will be settled quickly.

The bill adopted by the Knesset by a 61-58 margin — a severe defeat for Likud — favors elections in late May or early June. Officially, the date will be set while the measure is in committee prior to the required three readings before the Knesset plenum. It is being processed by the Law and Constitution Committee, chaired by Likud Liberal Eli Kulas.

In actuality, the election date will be decided in behind-the-scenes negotiations between Labor and Likud, with input from the smaller parties. On Friday, Labor Party chairman Shimon Peres publicly asked Likud leaders for a meeting on this matter. Peres also telephoned former President Yitzhak Navon, presently visiting the United States, to inform him officially of the Knesset vote.

DECISION MAY BE WORKED OUT THIS WEEK

Peres reportedly told Navon he expected a decision on the election date to be worked out this coming week. He is said to be anxious to have Navon return to active politics and participate as a Laborite in the upcoming campaign. Peres also reportedly told the former President that he had had an offer from Likud–before the Knesset vote — to hold elections next September 10. He said he rejected it.

But political pundits say this does not mean he will continue to reject it if the date is pressed by Likud in the bargaining process. Indeed, an early September date is considered most likely by the political community here. Labor opted for May or June in order to humble Likud on the Knesset floor when it became apparent that an early election bill would be passed, observers said.

But having achieved that satisfaction, Labor is not likely to alienate potential coalition partners such as the National Religious Party by insisting on a spring election which the NRP, in its current disarray, has good grounds to oppose. Although Labor hopes for an election victory of landslide proportions that would enable it to govern without a coalition, the history of Israeli politics makes such an outcome highly unlikely.

According to political observers, the elections will be held this spring or next fall. To have them in July or August is out of the question because so many middle class families — potential Labor supporters — vacation abroad in those months.

Labor wants as short a campaign as possible to take advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with the deteriorating economy and the unstable situation in Lebanon, issues on which the Likud government is most vulnerable. Likud, for obvious reasons, wants to postpone facing the voters until the economy shows some improvement.

Labor leaders are trying to persuade the NRP or at least the Aguda Israel Party, that an early poll is to their advantage because of the emergence of a new religious faction which might siphon away the votes of religious Sephardim.

This is the Shass Party, which did surprisingly well in Jerusalem’s municipal elections last November and may seek representation in the next Knesset. Shass is discreetly backed by the former Sephardic Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef and its rise, according to some observers, was one of the reasons that prompted Tami Party leader Aharon Abu-Hatzeira to part company with Likud and press for early elections.

Tami has reason to fear the emergence of a new Sephardic faction and apparently wants to consolidate a position in the next Knesset before it can make serious inroads among Tami’s Sephardic supporters.

On the other hand, the two Knesset dissenters who made possible Labor’s victory last Thursday — Likud Liberal Yitzhak Berman and independent Mordechai Ben-Porat–both favor fall elections. Their voices could be important in settling the issue. But political observers note that in the super-heated pre-election atmosphere that has engulfed Israel, positions can be changed even when they are a matter of public record.