The French elections March 12 and 19 might change the regime for the first time since the Gaullists took over 20 years ago. A number of basic issues are under consideration, including the role of Jews in major political parties, Israel’s friends among the nation’s political leaders and the consequences of a Socialist-Communist victory regarding France’s policy towards Israel.
Are there Jewish candidates and do Jews hold influential positions within the major political parties?
Jews have traditionally been very active in French political life. The country has had three Jewish Prime Ministers in the first 20 years which followed World War I–Leon Blum, Rene Meyer and Pierre Mendes-France–and countless Ministers. This proportion has, however, fallen during the last years. Currently the only political parties in which Jews play top level roles are the Communist Party and the minute Left Wing Radicals.
Within the current government there are three Jewish Ministers: Simone Veil, who is the Health Minister but is not running for election and has little influence on general policy; and two junior Ministers, Olivier Stirn, in charge of overseas territories, and Lionel Stoleru, Assistant Minister of Labor. Stoleru is believed to have good “personal relations” with Giscard but also has little influence on party decisions. There are no top level Jewish advisors either at the Elysee, the Gaullist Party or the pro-Giscard Independent Republicans.
Within the Socialist Party, one man, Georges Dayan, is reputed to be Socialist Party leader Francois Mitterand’s closest advisor and will probably be rewarded with a top level ministerial post should his party win. Another Jew, Jacques Attali, a 35-year-old economist and active in the Jewish community, is the party’s top economic expert.
Within the Communist Party, Jews play an important role in the central committee and one of them, Charles Fitterman, is the party’s number three man and reported to be one of the main contenders for the succession of party secretary general Georges Marchais.
Who are Israel’s best friends among the country’s political leaders?
The two men generally believed to be sincere in their pledges are Socialist Party leader Francois Mitterand and Gaullist leader Jacques Chirac. People who know them well say that they both Feel a strong personal commitment to Israel and its survival. This personal involvement does not mean, however, that if elected they would let these personal considerations dictate their political decisions. It is generally assumed, however, that they would be more inclined than other prominent political personalities to listen to Israel’s cause and take it into consideration.
ISRAELI VIEWS OF POLITICAL SITUATION
What is Israel’s stand? Does it take sides? Hundreds of French Jews have contacted the Israeli Embassy in Paris, Israeli diplomats and journalists to ask how to vote, and what vote would better suit Israel’s interests. The Embassy has given no advice. It keeps a strictly neutral stance and avoids at all costs from becoming involved in French internal political affairs. Israel will have to work and cooperate with whatever party will win.
Privately, Israeli diplomats in Paris are divided into two schools of thought. One believes that the current center-right majority has considerably improved its position and will probably continue to do so. It also stresses that things might be for worse with a Socialist-Communist government.
The other school of thought claims that “nothing can be worse” than the continuation of the current Gaullist pro-Arab and anti-Israeli tradition. These diplomats believe that the very fact of a government change will bring an improvement both with the advent of a left wing government and force the center-right opposition to adapt its policies to a more pro-Israeli line if it should want to regain power one day.
These opinions are, however, strictly private. No Israeli diplomat or Embassy official has taken any open position on Israel’s preferences or which side it favors.
What will change if the center-right Gaullists win?
Should they win, it will probably be by only a few seats, according to all public opinion polls. The close shave they will have had will probably make them more receptive in the future to the arguments put forward by the French Jewish community and Israel’s friends in France.
The polls also foresee that Chirac, one of Israel’s main friends, will control a majority of the center-right deputies and will thus be in a position to modulate French policy. Should the current majority win, a slow but definite improvement in Franco-Israeli ties can be expected. It will be an evaluative process which, experts believe, will take several years to be felt.
CONSEQUENCES OF A LEFTIST VICTORY
What will change if the left wins? This is the big unknown and will depend on several factors: the Communist share in the victory, the composition of the next Socialist-Communist government and also the relative weight of the left wing within the Socialist Party itself. Basically there are two main possibilities: the Communists win over 20 percent of the popular vote and form a joint government with the Socialists holding some half a dozen top ministries; or the Socialists score mainly by themselves and form the bulk of the new government.
In the first possibility, the new government’s position will probably be for more pro-Palestinian than it is now. It will encourage national liberation movements and support the Palestine Liberation Organization. Should the Socialists form the bulk of the new government, the relations might improve in certain aspects, such as bilateral ties, but will be exposed to tension on the Palestinian question.
Day by day policies will continue to be run by the Quai d’Orsay officials and the government will presumably be so fully engaged in internal matters that it will have little time for such foreign affairs considerations as the Middle East. Also, ties with America will be loosened and this in turn will have an influence on the new government’s policy in the Middle East.
Many political experts believe that most Jews will vote according to their personal interests and sympathies not on the basis of what France’s policy might be in the Middle East.
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