Behind the Headlines Israel Watching Developments in Iraq

Israelis are watching with the Keenest interest developments in Iraq’s northern provinces where a new armed confrontation appears imminent between the Iraqi army and rebellious Kurds led by Mulla Mustafa Barzani. An ultimatum the Baghdad regime handed Barzani 20 days ago expired last week with no indication that the rebels would accept the limited autonomy plan offered them by the Baathist government. The government threatens to Implement the plan by force. Barzani’s 15.000-strong guerrilla army–“Pesh Merjha”–has been freshly equipped with weapons and is prepared to resist.

Although these events are remote from Israel and are not directly involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict, what happens in the northern reaches of Iraq could have considerable bearing on whether there is a disengagement agreement or renewed warfare on the Syrian front.

Observers here point out that in its past troubles with the Kurds, the Iraqi government was forced to seek the help of Syrian troops. Thus the Kurdish rebellion in the 1960s made for a period of quiet on Israel’s northern frontier. Today, the greatly expanded Iraqi army is considered capable of dealing with the rebels alone –except that the Kurds may get support from Iraq’s powerful neighbor. Iran.

EFFECT ON SYRIAN FIGHTING

Relations between Baghdad and Teheran are at an all time low. The Iranians are in close touch with Barzani whom they consider part of the pan-Iranian movement and a natural ally. It is the Iranians rather than the Kurds who constitute the kind of military threat that forces Baghdad to keep its army at home rather than in Syria where it fought against Israel in the Yom Kippur War.

If Iraqi forces cannot be expected to re-enforce the Syrian army along the Golan Heights, the Damascus regime may well adopt a more moderate position. Israeli sources believe. The hawks in Damascus who are demanding that President Hafez Assad cooperate with Iraq against the “soft line” taken by President Anwar Sadat of Egypt are not likely to prevail if Iraq becomes militarily and politically embroiled in its own internal problems.

It is believed here therefore that Barzani will indirectly influence the course of disengagement talks between Israel and Syria, the preliminary stages of which are scheduled to start in Washington soon. If the Iraqis find themselves with a full-scale rebellion on their hands backed by Iran, the pace and tenor of disengagement talks with Syria could be affected, observers here believe.