Behind the Headlines; Mood in Israel is One of Concern, with Occasional Bursts of Hysteria

The mood in Israel since the outbreak of the Persian Gulf crisis has been one of watchful concern, rather than widespread panic.

There was, in fact, a day or two of near hysteria about a week after Iraq’s Aug. 2 invasion of Kuwait, when rumors spread that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had massed some 600 medium-range missiles equipped with chemical weapons near the Jordanian border with Israel.

The reports sparked demands for the distribution of gas masks to the public immediately, rather than at the end of the year, as originally scheduled.

Foreign Minister David Levy may have exacerbated widespread anxiety by challenging Defense Minister Moshe Arens’ position that the Israel Defense Force was correct in wanting to stick to the original schedule.

But the panic died down when Israeli officials cited intelligence reports indicating that the number of missiles in the Iraqi arsenal was really 200 to 300, rather than the rumored 600, and none of them was equipped with chemical war heads.

Moreover, the intelligence reports showed that only a limited number were aimed at Israel, with the majority lined up against Iraq’s main enemy at that moment: U.S. armed forces in Saudi Arabia.

Military officials also pointed out that if fired against Israel, the Iraqi missiles would be operating at their maximum range, with very low efficiency. If one or two missiles penetrated Israeli defenses, the results would be worrying but not devastating, they said.

PANIC BUYING IN THE STORES

Since then, the hysteria has subsided, though there are still calls for early distribution of the gas masks. Typical of the level of concern are the questions pet owners are asking about what provisions will be made to protect their cats and dogs. (They have been told that gas masks for pets are not available anywhere in the world.)

There were also two days of panic buying of food and other essential items, following television and radio interviews given Aug. 23 by Col. Dov Peled, head of the IDF’s Civil Defense Department for Public Protection.

Asked what the public should do in an emergency, he said all homes should be stocked with a one-or two-week supply of canned goods and essential foods, including bottled mineral water, as well as candles, matches and batteries for transistor radios, which could be used to listen to emergency instructions in the event of power failures.

Within hours, supermarket chains reported a 20 to 30 percent jump in sales of such items. The main demand was for baking soda, which can provide temporary protection against poison gas when a handkerchief dipped in a soda-and-water solution is held over the mouth and nose.

Packages of baking soda have now replaced the privileged position near supermarket cash registers that is occupied during the Passover season by boxes of matzah.

Peled was criticized by Arens and the IDF chief of staff, Gen. Dan Shomron. They reassured the public there was little chance of an Iraqi attack against Israel, because Saddam Hussein knew of Israel’s military might.

By the beginning of this week, shops reported the demand was back to near normal.

LONG-TERM IMPACT FEARED

The Gulf crisis has had little effect on immigration to Israel from the Soviet Union and other countries, and reportedly lesser impact than feared, so far, on foreign tourism to Israel.

According to figures released at the beginning of the week, some 90,000 new immigrants, mainly from the Soviet Union, have arrived in Israel so far this year.

But if the crisis continues into the fall, hoteliers and others in the tourism business fear they could suffer during the peak travel season.

Few tourists or foreign university students studying at Israeli universities have cut short their stays here. And most of those who have left apparently have done so at the urging of families in the United States, alarmed at exaggerated reports of panic inside Israel.

There is deep concern here, however, about the long-term political fallout from the Gulf crisis.

Israeli leaders and people on the street alike fear it will be difficult to protest U.S. plans to bolster the military power of Saudi Arabia, whose soldiers stand side-by-side with American troops along the Iraqi-Saudi border.

For the Likud and right-wing circles in Israel, there is concern that once the crisis has passed, the U.S. administration will again turn its attention to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

While Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasir Arafat appears to have overplayed his hand and, in Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s words, damaged the PLO’s credibility, the United States can be expected to intensify its pressure on Israel to seek negotiating partners among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, despite their support for Hussein of Iraq.

MILITARY SOLUTION PREFERRED

Much of Israel is united in an uneasy fear that international efforts to avert a further military confrontation with Iraq — spurred by as diverse a cast of intermediaries as Arafat, U.N. Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar and Austrian President Kurt Waldheim — will wind up allowing Hussein to descend gently from the high tree which he has climbed up.

One possibility is that Hussein will be persuaded to withdraw troops from Kuwait if they are replaced by some sort of multinational Arab League force.

Israelis fear this would leave the Iraqi leader with his new-found reputation in the Arab world as the modern Saladin or Nasser of the ’90s. When all was said and done, he would still possess his military arsenal and be able to continue manufacturing chemical weapons as he pushes ahead with plans to develop a nuclear capability.

Israelis won’t say it openly, but virtually all would prefer to see Iraq overrun and its military capability bombed out of existence, rather than allowing him to find a way out though political compromise.

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has reacted nervously to every new development in the Gulf crisis. Since the crisis began, the market has lost some 25 to 30 percent of its value, but it is still only back to its general level of a year ago.