Behind the Headlines: Oil Boycott Exposes Europe’s Industrial Vulnerability

Europe is shivering in homes, schools and factories. The normal temperature has dropped some three degrees as European governments try to counteract the effects of the Arab oil boycott and save fuel. The once busy highways and expressways which crisscrosses continental Europe with a larger traffic density than that of most American states, are now deserted. Belgium, Holland and Germany have decided to ban all motor traffic one day per week, Sundays, and a number of other countries plan to follow suit. The Arab imposed oil boycott has come as a demonstration of the role oil plays in modern industrial societies and of the Arab power and willingness to use it which, only a few months ago was unimaginable. While most Europeans, including governments, are prepared to put up with a little physical discomfort, none are prepared to accept the industrial implications of the ban.

Organization of Economic Development statistics indicate as an example that a 20 percent cut in oil supplies for Britain could result to a 5 percent cut in industrial output. British economy, already gripped by stagnation, inflation and massive strikes could not sustain this additional strain. In France, rated high on the Arab list of “friendly” states, a regular flow of oil on the basis of the consumption during the first nine months of the year, would also mean an end to the country’s rapid industrial expansion and a serious economic blow. But even France is threatened with more direct action than just a non-increase in the amount previously used. A reliable French paper, “Le Monde,” revealed this week that international oil companies have informed France that they will be soon obliged to diminish their supplies to France by 10-15 percent. Major oil companies, the paper reports and reliable sources confirm, are redirecting supplies among themselves. Oil leaving Libya or Algeria officially for France is often redirected to Rotterdam of Hamburg. The pinch is thus already felt by most West European states.

It takes on a special intensity in Japan. OECD sources, quoting Japanese statistics show that in that austere country, a 10 percent cut in oil supplies would equal a 10 percent cut in industrial production and economic growth. Japanese sources add that under these circumstances no possible counter-measures, such as a massive Jewish boycott of Japanese products, could threaten Japan’s economic existence to a comparable degree. “For us,” Japanese businessmen in Europe say, “oil is actually a matter of life and death. Moreover, the Middle East is far from us and our interest in Israel is strictly academic. It is not an issue over which the government could count on the slightest possible public support should the oil crisis develop.”

To a lesser degree this reasoning holds good for Europe too. Public sympathy for Israel has been eroded over the years for both intellectual and subjective reasons. Intellectually, many Europeans living at peace among themselves fail to understand certain points of Israel’s “security” policy. For many, Israel seems to display “a stubbornness no longer in keeping with the current era of compromise and cooperation.” These Europeans compare the Franco-German hatred as it existed in the immediate post-war years, to the European entente reigning now. “If we could make up with the Germans, why can’t the Israelis do the same with the Arabs” is an expression this correspondent has often heard. Emotionally, most Europeans have passed over the traumatic effects of the Nazi era. Symbolically, Israel’s last friends in Europe are members of the older generation who have known the reality of Nazism and its atrocities; the bulk of West Europeans has never known this period. Others have forgotten.

Even in Germany, many middle aged people tend to say: “All this is the past. Let us forget it and build the future.” Others add: “Israel is now a state like all other states, and though a special relationship exists, this cannot come over considerations of national interests.” Europe has thus lost the will to resist Arab boycott and many, moreover, doubt whether it has the means to do so. Practically all observers stress that Holland had done little to show its pro-Israeli support and that the Dutch government has been busy to minimize the sentiments of Dutch public opinion on this issue. The JTA correspondent in Amsterdam reports that the Dutch Foreign Ministry is “seriously embarrassed” by the appreciation shown by Jews all over the world. Dutch diplomats in Arab and African states have reportedly been ordered to deny any possible official support for Israel and its cause.

These observers believe that Holland was chosen as the main Arab target because it was the weakest link in the chain of European solidarity. With no energetic resources of its own, a developed industry and a flourishing business of oil refineries supplying a large part of Western Europe, it was the ideal victim to show the other European states how effective and damaging the Arab boycott could be. The lesson has been learned. Practically all Western Europe is determined to follow in the footsteps of France and Britain and improve relations with the Arab states. Many officials believe that the recent Brussels declaration by the nine Common Market countries was actually “too weak.” A senior French aide told this correspondent “The Brussels statement more or less followed American policy and with slight semantic variations (Security Council Resolution) 242. We need something much stronger to put the Arabs in our camp.”

If the governments have not gone ahead with this project and jumped with both feet into the Arab camp, it is to a large degree due to the pro-Israeli sentiments shown by many West European parliamentarians. Last week, some 50 officials, all members of the various parliamentary friendship organizations with Israel committees met in Paris to draw up a joint action plan. Though their various national associations represent only some 500 members in 11 countries–while the various West European parliaments count some 5000 Senators and MP’s–their influence is far greater than their actual number. Many of them, such as, Pierre Gillain de Benouville from France, are members of the ruling government parties and former respected resistance fighters. Others play important roles in their national political life or control newspapers and radio stations.

It is this parliamentary opposition, somewhat similar to the far more pro-Israeli stand tradition- ally adopted by Congress in the United States, that has prevented West Europe from taking an even more pro-Arab stand. With the oil boycott and the general political trend now developing, a more extreme stance can be expected.

West Europe hopes in this way to lower the oil bill. Recent oil increases are expected by OECD experts to add $15 billion to the member’s oil bill. This sum alone vastly exceeds all Arab investments in Europe. Thus any possible idea of European counter-measures can be ruled out on pure economic grounds. All that Europe hopes for is to mollify the Arab stand by backing it politically on the diplomatic field.