Cease-fire Expected to Continue While Egypt Sorts out Internal Situation

Diplomatic circles here expect a period of quiet in the Middle East while the Egyptians sort out their internal problems following the death of President Nasser. There are rising hopes that the 90-day Suez cease-fire will be extended beyond its Nov. 5 expiration date. Diplomats here also put credence in Egyptian statements, backed by Cairo’s Soviet allies, that they seek a peaceful settlement of the Mideast conflict, a policy which, they say, was pursued by President Nasser. President Nixon has received private assurances of this from Egyptian leaders, the State Department disclosed yesterday. The assurances were conveyed to Elliot L. Richardson. Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare, who headed the Presidential delegation to Nasser’s funeral in Cairo last Thursday. Mr. Richardson conferred at some length with Egypt’s interim President Anwar Sadat and with Foreign Minister Mahmoud Riad and Minister of National Guidance Hassanein Heykal who was an intimate of the late President Nasser. The U.S. delegation was reportedly surprised and pleased by the warmth and seriousness with which it was received by the Egyptian leadership. The feeling in diplomatic circles here is that at least one part of Secretary of State William P. Rogers’ Mideast peace initiative–the cease-fire–remains intact although the two sides seem as far away as ever from the parallel peace talks under United Nations envoy Gunnar V. Jarring. Dr. Jarring, who returned to Moscow, might return to the UN about Oct. 15 when Israeli and Arab leaders will be present at that time for a 25th anniversary commemorative session of the General Assembly.

Soviet Premier Alexei N. Kosygin has announced that he would not attend, thereby scuttling chances for high level talks on the Mideast. Nevertheless, there was nothing to rule out Dr. Jarring from using the opportunity to try again to get the stalled peace talks off the ground. Egypt and the Soviet Union issued a joint communique in Cairo yesterday affirming continuation of the policies agreed upon by the late President Nasser and Soviet leaders. Those policies include the goal of a political solution and acceptance of the cease-fire. The communique was issued after four days of intensive consultations between Premier Kosygin and the post-Nasser leadership of Egypt. Mr. Kosygin headed the Soviet delegation to Nasser’s funeral and used the occasion to re-affirm Russia’s continued military, economic and diplomatic support for Egypt. The joint communique spoke of the common objective of “eliminating the consequences of Israeli aggression by achieving permanent peace in the area.” The semi-official Cairo daily Al Ahram said yesterday that the Soviet Union will give “full and continuous support to Egypt.” The paper said pressure must be exerted to break Israel’s attempt to “obstruct the settlement of the Middle East crisis” but a political solution must not be rejected.

Observers here noted that the Soviets lost no time in assuring the new Egyptian regime of its steadfast support. The Kremlin is apparently striving to continue its close ties with Egypt developed under President Nasser which date from 1955 when the Soviets first began delivering military equipment to Egypt. But it is not certain at this time whether the Kremlin will be able to establish with Nasser’s ultimate successor the close personal ties and rapport it had with the late Egyptian leader. Observers here believe it is too soon after Nasser’s death to say who will pick up the reins of power in Egypt. American diplomats expect that Egypt will be run by a collective leadership during the immediate future. They also expect a fierce internal power struggle. But whatever its outcome, the belief is that for the time being the Egyptians will be too preoccupied with internal problems and too emotionally exhausted from the shock of Nasser’s sudden death to alter the precarious truce that now exists with Israel.

DAYAN: EGYPT APPARENTLY CALLED OFF WAR OF ATTRITION BEFORE NASSER’S DEATH

(Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Dayan said in Jerusalem yesterday that Egypt apparently had called off its war of attrition against Israel before Nasser’s death because it was going against Egypt. He claimed that that was the reason why Nasser accepted the American peace initiative and decided against ending the cease-fire because of news that the U.S. was going to send more Phantom jets to Israel. Gen. Dayan said that indications of Egyptian recognition of the futility of its war of attrition was the most hopeful development of the past year. He said the Arab-Israeli conflict may have entered its final phase but warned that this didn’t mean that the bloodshed was over. He expressed hope that the Egyptians would agree to extend the Suez cease-fire beyond the Nov. 5 deadline.) Observers here predicted a period of quiet in Jordan in the aftermath of a savage civil war that ravaged that country last month. The new civilian government in Amman has taken a conciliatory position toward El Fatah, the largest of the Palestinian guerrilla groups, though it is still bitterly at odds with the Marxist-oriented, extremist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Popular Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Jordan’s new Minister of information, Abu Odeh, said in Amman on Thursday that the government favored a peaceful settlement of the Mideast conflict but would nonetheless give guerrillas a free hand to mount attacks against Israel.

That position apparently derived from the accord signed by King Hussein and El Fatah chief Yassir Arafat in Cairo last Sunday, only a day before President Nasser died. Although the guerrillas were badly mauled by Hussein’s forces, the king was unable to destroy them or to seize their strongholds in northern Jordan. His re-conciliation with Arafat was brought about by heavy pressure from other Arab countries, notably Egypt, Libya and Kuwait. The latter two oil-producing countries cut off their financial subventions to Jordan. Under the agreement the guerrillas will withdraw from Amman and will concentrate in the Western border regions, their staging area for attacks on Israel. (Premier Golda Meir of Israel warned in Jerusalem Friday that Israel would not tolerate a resumption of guerrilla activities against its border settlements. “We are not ready to make such a contribution to a temporary quiet in Jordan.” she said. Mrs. Meir did not think that the Hussein-Arafat agreement would settle the Jordanian crisis permanently.)