This week’s visit by U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher may have helped change the atmosphere between Syria and Israel, but it is far too soon to talk about any breakthroughs, observers say.
What is clear is that Christopher has given Syrian President Hafez Assad a way to return to the negotiating table with Israel, they say.
Christopher has also prodded Assad into making some unusual goodwill gestures that Israel cannot ignore and that show a clear investment in the peace process, even if some believe his main motivation is winning U.S. favor.
Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin lauded as significant Syria’s decision to allow a U.S. congressional delegation to investigate the fate of Israel’s missing servicemen, who are believed to be in Lebanon.
The prime minister also welcomed Syria’s agreement to grant exit visas to Syrian Jews.
Rabin made it clear, however, that Christopher did not ask Israel for new gestures or concessions, which doubtless came as a relief.
Expectations about the secretary’s visit were deliberately played down. Christopher’s only stated goal was to inject new life into the moribund peace talks between Israel and Syria, which Syria broke off months ago, claiming that Israel was not serious.
In fact, Israel had not especially welcomed Christopher’s mission at this time.
Officials are preoccupied with working out the details of the autonomy accord with the Palestine Liberation Organization, scheduled to go into effect Dec. 13, and the violence that remains stubbornly attached to it.
They also have shied away from the prospect of U.S. pressure to move faster than they feel is wise regarding the Golan Heights.
FATE OF PLO ACCORD WILL HAVE IMPACT
On this score, officials were relieved by Christopher’s pronouncements Tuesday that the attention Israel is attaching to the PLO accord is appropriate.
It means Christopher did not accept Syria’s claim that Israel had intentionally stopped their talks because of the agreement with the Palestinians.
At the same time, he made it clear the United States is interested in progress on all the negotiating tracks.
Analysts caution that it is too soon to assess the full impact of Christopher’s mission. They point out that much can happen between now and the end of January, when the bilateral talks are expected to resume.
By the end of next month, the fate of the Israel-PLO accord will be much clearer, and that, more than anything, will determine the diplomatic leverage Syria will bring to the table.
Official implementation of the accord is slated to begin Dec. 13, but already there are “understandings” about delays.
The secretly orchestrated Oslo agreement was a blow to Syria’s prestige and shattered the notion of Syria-led Arab unity and Syrian control over the peace process.
Further, there were recent meetings in Washington where Israel appeared to win U.S. assurances that it will secure high-technology military support to offset whatever risks it takes for peace.
While these deals have not been finalized, it is likely Israel is looking forward to the delivery of a series of advanced U.S. fighter jets.
Taken together, experts said, these factors make Syria vulnerable enough to return to Washington and sit across from the Israelis.
On the other hand, if the PLO accord fails, Syria’s position in the peace process will be strengthened and may harden.
SYRIA WANTS TO RE-ENGAGE
Meanwhile, the two sides remain stuck over Syria’s insistence that Israel declare its readiness to withdraw from the entire Golan Heights, and Israel’s refusal to spell out its intentions until Syria explains the full peace it will guarantee in return.
Yossi Olmert, a Middle East expert and Israeli peace talks negotiator under the previous government, said Syria wanted to re-engage in the process “but didn’t know how.”
“After the Israel-PLO agreement, they felt out of the picture, and they needed to recover from the shock,” he said.
“They also wanted and needed a very firm and specific American commitment that (the United States is) interested in being actively engaged, and apparently they got this commitment” from Christopher, Olmert said.
At the same time, he said, the Americans told the Syrians that Washington needed something in return to justify its involvement, and it got the commitment to the congressional investigating team.
Olmert said this was a “very clever” move because it will help soften congressional opposition to Syria and pave the way for Syria’s removal from the U.S. list of international terrorists, its most coveted goal.
Assad, meanwhile, is avidly seeking a meeting with President Clinton, which clearly will elevate his prestige and also, said Olmert, “give him a better clue” to U.S. intentions.
He is not ready, Olmert said, to meet Rabin face to face, despite speculation of such a summit under U.S. auspices.
Hagai Meirom, a Labor Party Knesset member, said it is too soon to know the impact of Christopher’s visit.
He also said that the weightiest issues, security and demilitarization of the Golan Heights, can best be addressed in secret channels, not in Washington.
But the importance of Syria’s recent goodwill gestures should not be underestimated. “It is a kind of hint that bigger things are being built,” Meirom said.
Syria’s official English-language daily newspaper reported Tuesday that Syria had rejected an offer from Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights in four phases in return for immediate peace with the Syrians. The paper said the offer had been conveyed by Christopher.
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