Focus on Issues: Jewish Continuity in Peril in Former Soviet Republics

Jewish continuity is in grave jeopardy in the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, and there is a limited amount of time in which to do something about it, officials of the Jewish Agency for Israel are warning.

If current patterns of emigration and assimilation continue, the Jewish population in the former Soviet Union is likely to drop by nearly 1 million over the next five years, said Baruch Gur, director of the Jewish Agency department dealing with the newly independent states.

The Jewish population in these areas already fell by a million in the last four years, and a decrease of another million would leave only 500,000 Jews, said Gur.

Uri Gordon, head of the Jewish Agency’s immigration and absorption department, was even more dramatic in his pronouncements. “If Jews won’t make aliyah, they will disappear,” he said, using the Hebrew word for immigration to Israel.

Of the half-million Jews projected to remain after five years, only 150,000 will be children of two Jewish parents, he pointed out.

Currently, 100,000 to 120,000 Jews emigrate from the newly independent states each year, of which 60,000 to 70,000 come to Israel. At the same time, the rates of intermarriage run as high as 75 percent in Russia, Gur said.

Gordon pointed to the aging population and the low birthrate, which he said are contributing to the numerical demise of the Jewish community. For every Jewish child born, between 11 and 13 Jewish people die, he said.

Gur and Gordon sounded the alarm as aliyah figures rose in the second quarter of 1994. According to the National Conference on Soviet Jewry in New York, 14,929 immigrants from the former Soviet republics arrived in Israel during the second quarter, compared to 12,531 during the first quarter of the year.

EMIGRATION RUNNING BEHIND LAST YEAR

Another 7,331 immigrants arrived in the United States during this period under the government’s refugee program, compared to 8,156 during the first quarter of 1994, according to preliminary statistics released by the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society in New York.

Emigration from Russia and its former Soviet neighbors, though, is running slightly behind where it was at this time last year.

A total of 32,916 immigrants arrived in Israel during the first seven months of 1994, compared to 36,863 last year.

The Jewish Agency expects about 60,000 to arrive from the former Soviet lands by year’s end, compared with roughly 70,000 last year.

“It is our responsibility to pay attention” to the critical situation in the former Soviet Union, said Gur, adding that the Jewish continuity problem is not limited by borders.

The possibilities of assimilation are increasing as a result of some of the recent political reforms in the newly independent states, he said. In many places Jews no longer must be registered as Jewish in their passports, so “those who want to disappear can disappear.” At the same time, Jews are “coming out of the closet as Jews,” but primarily for the “privilege of emigrating.”

These trends, said Gur, pose an urgent challenge for the Jewish world.

“On the one hand, we have those who will assimilate, and on the other, those who will emigrate,” he said. “In the middle, we have those who are staying and haven’t made the decision whether to leave or to assimilate and to what degree they want to remain Jews.”

The Jewish Agency has stepped up programs in light of what it sees as a “window of opportunity” to reach this population, virtually doubling its activities in key regions in basic Jewish education and in the promotion of Israel and aliyah.

“We introduce them to Judaism and to Israel,” said Gur.

For example, summer camps for youth that last year served 10,000 are serving 20,000 this summer. They were doubled after a Gutman Institute survey found the camps “increased involvement in Jewish activities and increased knowledge, ties and identification with the Jewish people and the State of Israel.”

“Kids who know basically nothing (Jewishly) are coming to these camps from tiny communities,” where the number of Jews is minute, said Gur, who in July visited three of the most remote camps in Siberia.

ULPANS QUADRUPLED IN FORMER USSR

At the same time, the number of ulpanim, or Hebrew language courses, in the former Soviet Union has quadrupled from 30 to 120, while the number of Jewish Agency offices increases from 22 to 31 and shlichim, or emissaries, increased from 70 to 90.

Meanwhile, aliyah patterns have been in flux. So far this year, there has been a 20 percent decrease in aliyah from Russia, where an estimated 750,000 Jews remain.

The decline is a result of the stabilization of the economy and the fact that the “reservoir of Jews motivated to leave has been getting smaller each year,” said Chaim Chesler, head of the Jewish Agency delegation in the newly independent states. But the Russian stabilization is “shaky,” Chesler said. “If an extremist president is elected in ’96, the situation will change.”

In Ukraine, where there are half a million Jews, emigration is up this year between 50 and 60 percent, and is expected to be at least double the 1993 figure at year’s end, Chesler said.

The increase is due to Ukraine’s severe economic distress and the political instability that gives rise to nationalism, said Chesler. The Jews are also less assimilated than in Russia, so “the potential immigrant pool is stronger,” he said.

The pressure in Ukraine to emigrate is not expected to ease despite the recent elections of a new president and government which enjoy the support of the Jewish community, said Gur.

“The prevailing sense of political and economic crisis is exacerbated in the Jewish community by the fear that without a rapid improvement in conditions, an upsurge in nationalist feelings can be expected,” he said. “We are putting forth every effort” to reach those in the former Soviet Union still hesitating to make aliyah “for whatever the complicated reasons may be,” said Gordon.