Chief of Staff Gen. Mordechai Gur has warned that several thousand members of the so-called Palestinian Liberation Army, controlled by Syria, are deployed over a wide area of the northern frontier ready to serve as the spearhead of a general attack on Israeli military and civilian targets should the Syrians decide to launch large-scale hostilities in an attempt to sabotage a second-stage agreement between Israel and Egypt.
Gur voiced his warning that Israel’s northern borders may be the first target of a new Middle East war after touring the Golan Heights and the Har Dov region Friday. He said the Palestinian irregulars were poised in positions from Fatahland to the Hasbani River.
Defense Minister Shimon Peres, who accompanied Gur, repeated the same warning later in an address to high school students. Both he and Gur stressed that Israeli forces were fully ready to deal with any contingency. But the Chief of Staff conceded that a new war would be a fierce one with no illusions about any magical victory. “The battlefields of today are crammed with sophisticated weapons and equipment and any new war between us and the Egyptians or Syrians could produce the largest tank, artillery and serial battles in history,” he said.
MANEUVERS CAUSE CONCERN
The remarks by Gur and Peres were made against the background of stepped-up military activity by Syria and Egypt. Both countries have recently conducted large-scale military maneuvers on their sides of the disengagement lines. While these have been conducted openly and in full view of Israeli forces, the very lack of secrecy has caused some concern in Israeli circles.
They recall that large-scale maneuvers by Egypt and Syria in October 1973 suddenly erupted into the attack of Oct. 6, starting the Yom Kippur War. The lack of concealment at that time was one of the factors that misled Israeli intelligence experts in their estimation of Syrian and Egyptian intentions.
While the situation on the Egyptian front is not considered menacing at this point, at least as long as Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger continues his efforts to promote a second-stage Sinai agreement, Syria’s intentions are unpredictable. President Anwar Sadat of Egypt has said publicly that he has no intention of attacking Israel. But no similar assurances have emerged from Damascus.
SYRIA’S WAR MACHINE RE-EQUIPPED
Israeli circles, moreover, take a very serious view of the massive build-up of Syria’s war machine by the Russians. The Soviets have put larger quantities of heavy arms at Syria’s disposal than in October, 1973. The Syrian Air Force, which lost 200 of the 330 combat aircraft it had on the eve of the Yom Kippur War, now has 400 planes, including the MIG-21 and the newer, highly sophisticated MIG-23 and SU-11.
On the ground, the Russians have more than replaced the 1000 tanks Syria lost in the Yom Kippur War. The new Syrian armor includes the new Russian T-62 tanks and the Syrian artillery has been bolstered with some 1000 new heavy pieces including the 180 mm. cannon which has a 32 kilo-meter range.
The Syrian arsenal also includes the “Scud” ground-to-ground missile and a sizeable stock of “Frog” missiles which proved effective in the Yom Kippur War. Israeli security officials estimate that a Syrian first strike would be launched by the Palestinians with assaults on civilian and military targets along Israel’s borders to be followed by Syrian missile attacks on Israeli cities and a frontal assault on the Israeli army.
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