Israelis Glum, Egyptians Optimistic As Kissinger Continues His Efforts

As Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger took off for Aswan at noon today to begin the second round of his current “shuttle” diplomacy aimed at a second-stage Israeli-Egyptian agreement in Sinai, the mood in Jerusalem was somewhat downbeat while that in Cairo, determinedly optimistic.

Israeli officials were stressing the deep and wide gap that exists between Israel’s “cardinal point”–a formal, bilateral, signed non-belligerency accord in exchange for substantial territorial withdrawals–and Egypt’s absolute refusal, so far, to even consider such a pact except as part of an overall Middle East peace settlement.

While Egyptian officials were stressing that position to reporters, they also spoke of “elements” Egypt was prepared to offer as part of a second-stage agreement which, they believed, should constitute satisfactory proof to Israel of Egypt’s sincere intention not to launch a new war “as long as efforts to secure a final peace continue.” President Anwar Sadat was quoted today as saying that he saw an 80-90 percent chance of success for Kissinger’s latest peace moves.

Israeli officials were offering no prognostications on the basis of percentage points or any other indices. They seemed to be reviving the more “modest” of the two scenarios for withdrawal in Sinai–a 30-50 kilometer pull-back which would not include the strategic Mitle and Gidi Passes or the Abu Rodeis oil-fields and consequently would not require a formal non-belligerency undertaking from Egypt.

REALISM AND HISTRIONICS

How much of the optimism in Cairo and the slightly pessimistic outlook in Jerusalem represents the realistic viewpoints in those capitals and how much can be written off as bargaining ploys intended for home consumption and world opinion, remains a moot question,

The “elements” referred to by Egyptian officials are modest indeed, from Israel’s viewpoint. They are said to include opening the Egyptian-Israeli borders to transit by foreign tourists and passage through the Suez Canal of ships carrying Israeli cargos, though not Israel flag-ships. The Egyptians would also go about rebuilding the canal side cities and towns as further evidence of their peaceful intentions.

According to one report, the Egyptians feel that the wording of their 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel should suffice to re-assure Israel of their non-belligerent intentions and they are not averse to having them repeated in a second-stage accord. In the 1974 agreement both sides promised to “refrain from all military and paramilitary action” from the moment the document was signed. While no time limit was put on that promise, they stated that the document was not a final peace agreement but a first step toward a durable peace in keeping with UN Security Council Resolutions 338 and 242 and within the framework of the Geneva peace conference.

Israeli sources have dismissed the offer to allow Israeli cargos through the Suez Canal and the restoration of normal civilian life along the waterway as an Egyptian attempt to sell the same goods twice. The Israelis maintain that those matters were already agreed to implicitly in the January, 1974 disengagement agreements. The tourism offer was admittedly new and obviously calculated to impress the Israelis, Secretary Kissinger and world opinion.

Israel, however, was in no mood this week to be satisfied or mollified merely by the tourism component. What it still hopes for is a much broader and politically significant accord. The gulf separating the two sides on the central issue of “non-belligerency” remained deep and wide, well-placed officials stressed here last night and this morning.