Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger, on his latest whirlwind tour of the Middle East that ended here Friday, left behind a scenario that calls for a second stage of Israeli-Egyptian negotiations for a partial Sinai settlement, to begin next month if all goes well. The Secretary brought that proposal to both Cairo and Jerusalem. He hopes to hold preliminary talks with Egyptian and Israeli representatives in Washington in the coming week and intends to return to the region in Dec. to finalize the time, place and level of the second stage talks.
(See separate story on Kissinger’s talks in Israel and separate analysis on the Arab challenge to the U.S.)
Kissinger hopes that the Israelis and Egyptians will have concluded an agreement before the scheduled visit of Soviet Communist Party Secretary Leonid I. Brezhnev to Cairo Jan. 17. Top Egyptian officials are expected to be in the U.S. for the United Nations Palestine debate which starts this week. Israel will probably be asked to send its own representatives to confer with Kissinger in Washington.
Briefing newsmen after the Secretary’s departure for Tunis Friday, Information Minister Aharon Yariv stressed that his visit had been devoted largely to a thorough review of the Rabat summit and to bilateral issues in the U.S.-Israeli relationship. He said that neither the “modalities” time, place and level of the forthcoming talks with Egypt, nor their content were discussed in depth. That would be left for the Secretary’s next visit in Dec. Yariv said.
FATE OF SECOND STAGE SINAI TALKS
Other well placed sources said, however, that Kissinger had conveyed a broad hint from Egyptian President Anwar Sadat that he would be prepared to negotiate various “political” components in a partial settlement, although formally, Egypt would continue to insist on a “military” framework for the talks. Kissinger did not specify which “political” components Sadat would agree to discuss.
The fate of second stage Sinai talks depends largely on whether Kissinger is able to narrow the wide gap between the Israeli and Egyptian concepts. Cairo insists that any new talks must be primarily on “military” matters, such as its undertaking to maintain the cease-fire for a specific period in return for substantial new Israeli withdrawals in Sinai something akin to the disengagement agreement of last Jan. but on a much wider scale.
Sadat is said to rationalize his insistence on a purely military accord by explaining that the Rab at summit allowed him to proceed separately in negotiations with Israel only to achieve a military arrangement. Any political progress, the Rabat conference resolved, must be undertaken in unison by all the Arab parties including the Palestine Liberation Organization.
ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL CRUCIAL IN NEXT STAGE
Israel, on the other hand, demands that second stage talks result in a settlement of major political significance. It seeks an open-ended cessation of belligerence coupled with political and economic provisions aimed at setting both countries in the direction of peace. Israeli officials have proposed an end to the Arab boycott, open borders for foreign tourists and free passage of the Suez Canal for Israeli ships, or at least, in the beginning, for Israeli cargoes. They also want a diminution of hostile political propaganda.
The extent of a new Israeli withdrawal in Sinai will obviously be the crucial issue in the next stage of talks. Egypt is said to be adamant on the return of the strategic Mitle Pass and evacuation of the Sinai oil fields at Abu Rodeis. Israel is not believed prepared to give up the oil fields at this time.
Kissinger’s return visit to the Middle East next month will follow the scheduled summit meeting of President Ford and Brezhnev at Vladivostock. Yariv insisted that the Russians could not exercise any kind of “veto” on the Secretary’s efforts in the Middle East. But he conceded that the Mideast probably would be discussed at Vladivostock, a factor that cannot be discounted.
Israeli sources believe that Kissinger hopes, once again, to upstage the Soviets on the Middle East and thus head off their renewed thrust for influence in Egypt. It is believed here that Sadat may be willing to cooperate in that endeavor in order to retain his delicately balanced independence from both super powers and to prove to Moscow that his reliance on American diplomacy this past year has brought Egypt practical results.
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