Likud and Labor Would Have Tied if Elections Were Held Last Week

Likud publicists gearing up for an early election campaign were dismayed when a leading pollster told them Wednesday that the party would have done no better than a tie with Labor had the elections been held last week.

Moreover, according to Dr. Mina Zemach, a majority of the voters favor a land-for-peace compromise with the Palestinians, a solution rejected by the party’s leadership and absent from its platform.

Zemach was invited by Likud to report the results of her latest survey at the opening of a symposium of the party’s public relations specialists, who will map campaign strategy.

Limor Livnat, the Likud information committee chairman who introduced her, stressed that Zemach would present an objective analysis of the data culled from the public, not her personal views.

Zemach found it necessary to repeat that caveat when she noted the disbelief and distress her presentation was causing her audience.

“Don’t argue with me. I’m merely weighing the data from the public, not arguing with the voters,” she said at one point.

“The public wants real peace and is ready to pay for it,” she added.

Most voters, veteran Israelis and recent immigrants alike, give top priority to success of the peace process, Zemach said her polls showed.

“The most popular path to peace is through a five-year autonomy period, with 55 percent of the voters favoring a return of the territories afterward” to the Palestinians, Zemach said.

The Likud platform proposes autonomy for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip but does not envisage territorial compromise. It is vague about the future status of the territories, which would be left for “later discussion on a final solution.”

FAR RIGHT GAINING STRENGTH

As for voting patterns had the elections been held last week, Zemach found a slight increase in the power of the far-right wing at the expense of Likud. She said 84 percent of the far right’s potential voters are former Likudniks.

Likud’s strength would come mainly from young first-time voters, she said, but only 6 percent would be new immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

There would be a small swing to Likud from Shas, the Orthodox party with a largely Sephardic constituency, Zemach found. And there would be a slight defection from Labor to the small left-of-center parties: the Center-Shinui Movement, Mapam and the Citizens Rights Movement.

Of considerable importance to both major parties was Zemach’s finding that 25 percent of the voters are undecided with 7 to 8 percent of them wavering between Likud and Labor.

The undecided voters include over half of the 200,000 new immigrant voters, Zemach said.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir got another unpleasant political reminder this week. Housing Minister Ariel Sharon reiterated Thursday that he would challenge Shamir for leadership of Likud and the office of prime minister. Likud is scheduled to nominate its candidate on Feb. 10.