The deterioration of the security situation and consequent spread of hard-line sentiment is shaping up as a political plus for Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s Likud-led government, analysts here believe.
Although pressed by the Labor opposition on such issues as the shortage of housing and beset by some of its allies on the far right, the Likud government is expected to survive a no-confidence vote in the Knesset next week.
This time it will do so with a more comfortable margin than the 53-51 vote with which it squeaked by on Oct. 22, the analysts say.
But in the unlikely event a motion is passed, and enough votes can be mustered to dissolve the 12th Knesset, Shamir is not afraid to face the electorate, sources close to the prime minister insist.
They say he is confident of a favorable outcome for Likud in new elections, because the Iraqi crisis and the wave of terrorist attacks in Israel have shifted the public consensus from middle-of-the-road to the right.
Moreover, Likud could count on the thousands of Soviet Jews pouring into Israel whose political bias is said to lean toward the right.
Likud nevertheless is trying to widen its shaky 62-58 parliamentary majority.
Shamir is scheduled to meet Friday morning with the leadership of the Orthodox Agudat Yisrael party, with whom he hopes to wrap up long drawn-out coalition negotiations.
The Agudah’s four Knesset votes would strengthen the government and act as a hedge against a possible defection by the Orthodox Shas party.
On the far right, Moledet’s two-man Knesset faction is split.
Its leader, reserve Gen. Rehavam Ze’evi, broke coalition discipline when he opposed the government in the Oct. 22 confidence vote.
The party’s No. 2 man, Yair Sprinzak, abstained, admitting later in an army radio interview that he and Ze’evi were at odds over the timing of a move to topple the government which they think is too soft on the Arabs.
Moledet’s platform calls for the transfer of the Palestinian population out of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Ze’evi and his followers believe the public mood has shifted far enough to the right guarantee them at least 10 Knesset seats elections were held soon.
Another Likud ally on the far right, the two-man Tsomet faction, gave formal notice Thursday evening that it would quit the coalition unless the government expedites legislation for electoral reform within the next three weeks.
Political pundits believe new elections are unlikely because, given the drift of public opinion Labor fears the outcome.
Therefore, according to the political experts, Shamir’s position is strong. Even if his government falls, there is no alternative in sight.
His own rivals for power in Likud — Ariel Sharon, David Levy, Yitzhak Moda’i – prefer to avoid elections which would probably ensconce 75-year-old Shamir in the office of prime minister for four more years.
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